“The market has turned”
NOT going to do it!
As many of you know, I have mentioned several times that things have gotten quite a bit slower. I think this story pretty much sums it up, especially this part:
“How would you characterize the housing market right now? MOZILO: The market has turned. The psychology of the buyers for single-family homes has clearly changed. We are seeing it from the flow of loan applications. If I had to pick a time, I would have to say it turned in January.”
There you have it, from the CEO of the largest mortgage origination company in the country. If the largest originator in the country is being hit by the slowdown, what do you think is happening to all of the other companies?
Look at the stock price of ECR (Encore Capital Corp). This chart does not surprise me in the least. That is what happens why you try and “buy the market” with crazy rates and guidelines that most other companies wouldn’t touch. Encore is known for using the “high” FICO score, not the middle of 3 or lower of 2 like the rest of the industry. Some other companies would do it, but with an add-on to the rate. Encore did it with no add-on. They were also very liberal with pricing for several months there. Maybe that is why they are in the predicament they are in. I’m sure their customers and brokers love them…but at the end of the day, they are taking some large losses on their portfolios.
That said, I have seen the writing on the wall for quite a while now. As things have started slowing down even more, I have began working-on and looking-at other options in and out of the mortgage industry. Just bear with me as I’m working on my plans B, C and D at the moment. It takes quite a bit of time to write 5 completely new posts a week. I really enjoy doing the blog, replying to e-mails, and helping people out…but blogging doesn’t exactly pay the bills at this time…I wish it did though!
The forums are becoming an excellent resource. There are over 200 topics, 1300 posts, and almost 250 members. If I don’t have a post up, spend some time over on the forums. There are a lot of FB stories, as well as other posters that have a lot of good information to share.
Thank you for your understanding, patience, and support!
BTW…San Diego inventory is now sitting at 17,225 per ziprealty.com.
I look forward to your questions, comments, and feedback!
SoCalMtgGuy
February 28th, 2006 03:06
SoCalMtgGuy-
We appreciate all you hard work, and insider scoops. You’ve kept some of us sane.
I am in the R E biz in So Ca, with a formal education in Accounting. Throughout the last 5 years, I’ve watched numerous friends commit financial suicide, even after I tutored them in why it was a bubble, including giving them copies of The Economist Magazine articles on the global liquidity/housing bubble.
Simon and Garfunkel said it best “A man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest” (Sound of Silence)
Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Captial, covered the housing bubble again on his Feb. 22nd free internet/radio show. Worth everyone’s ears. Interesting, that Jim Puplaya CEO of Puplaya Securties/Fiancial Sense Online has a different take. Worth a listen too.
February 28th, 2006 03:43
The 6mo ECR chart doesn’t clearly show Monday’s 30% drop trading 7 million of the 100 million shares outstanding.
SoCalMtgGuy, look around Orange County. Now just visually subtract half of all MBSec related business, not just jobs but close the offices and then throw out of work half of all construction workers and then triple the number of casual day laborers on the corner. Take those construction contractors F250 Super Duty King CAbs and put them for sale on the street in front of the Ford dealership. Now imagine the prep lot behind the Lexus and MB dealership full of early lease turnbacks. Man, the OC is gonna get creamed. You are smart to have options lined up. That said, I just wouldn’t want to be in the OC when the bovine fecal matter impacts the rotary impeller. Me, I’m almost set. My last divestment escrow closes this week, opened the HELOC for emergencies ($120k over an existing 5% fixed approx 25% LTV combined), painted the house and put on a new roof. When prices go down 50% I’ll still be fat on equity. I’m not selling for family and Prop 13 reasons. This is going to happen fast. Just look at ECR. “Everyone” knew sub-prime lenders were going to start to suffer but nobody but we few knew it was going to take a haircut and then resume it’s decline. The OC also has the same problem we have in VenCo; invisible homeowners. You know the two brothers, Luis and Jesus who went in together to buy a house. Things get tough and they’ll disappear for six months and then with a new mustache they’ll reappear down the street as their own cousins. In the meantime the bank is going to unsure who exactly owns or what happened to all the fixtures and who to pursue for arears or damages.
February 28th, 2006 04:06
Can you clarify about “invisible homeowners?”
February 28th, 2006 04:28
Invisible Homeowners are illegal aliens who have pooled resources and bought houses all over this part of the country. When things get tough they aren’t going to go to court mandated credit counseling. They not only don’t have any skin in the housing game they don’t have any skin in our laws or society. There won’t be anyone to go after to recover payments. So, what you get is 3 months of no payments the bank officer shows up at the property to find four families living there but no one knows the person whose name is on the mortgage. The place has been divided up, the garage converted, mini kitchens in many rooms, etc. It’ll be another two months before things can be straightened out then the evictions and then the repairs…. a real mess all this time the bank is running up massive expenses. The original people with names on the mortgage have taken an extended vacation south of the border and presumably are never coming back but instead their lookalike cousin will come back. “Oh no, I am not Miguel, Miguel is my cousin, I am Juan.”
February 28th, 2006 04:32
So what’s different between ECR other sub-prime lenders like NEW/LEND?
ECR is at a low while the others are still near their highs for two main reasons, IMO:
1. ECR is much smaller than the others and the margin squeeze turned their profits to losses sooner because fixed costs were too high as a percentage of revenues.
2. NEW and LEND (especially LEND) have very large institutional ownership totals. Hedge funds appear to be playing the Ponzi game with those two which will probably lead to a dramatic collapse eventually.
Meanwhile, other sub-prime players (SAX, IMH, AIC, DFC) sort of languish in between ECR and LEND in terms of performance.
February 28th, 2006 04:46
The only difference is that ECR is no longer in denial. Truth told they did the right thing to suspend dividends and admit to a problem. There’s no way any other mortgage originator isn’t having exactly the same problems. They are all cash flow businesses and all exposed to the Feds raising rates and tightened secondary requirements.
February 28th, 2006 05:02
I suggest everyone enjoying this blog hit the tip jar, let SoCal know how much we appreciate his sanity.
February 28th, 2006 05:25
Robert Cote’ nailed the Criminal Invader housing bail out perfectly. We sold our McMansion and moved into an apt. surrounded by Criminal Invaders. Two rent the joint, then 8-10 people share a two bedroom apt. I called the city of Thousand Oaks out of curiosity, and was told they relaxed the over crowding laws. As long as no one was sleeping in the bathroom or kitchen, its ok by them.
No doubt, when their underground economy jobs dry up, they will bail. Morally bankrupt scum they are. Objective, not subjective comment.
February 28th, 2006 06:59
We sold our McMansion and moved into an apt. surrounded by Criminal Invaders.
Ah, I see that a member of SoCal’s “sullen white trash” set is now represented among SoCal’s commentors. For those of you not in SoCal, these people are the ones who back elected officials like former Rep. Bob Barr (R-Anaheim) and groups like the “Minutemen.” I am a card-carrying member of the GOP myself, and hate-filled bigots like Susan are a constant source of embarrassment to me and to the naitonal party. The thing is, I agree with some of her positions. There really is too much illegal immigration, you don’t have to be a racist to see that. Illegal aliens really are poor, they really do cause many problems, and, like her, I really would like to limit their numbers. But unlike Susan, the rest of us do not have an irrational, virulent hatred of all things brown. We do not refer to them as Criminal Invaders, “morally bankrupt scum,” etc.
Susan, I don’t like the presence of the illegals here either. Their massive numbers are the cause of many, many problems.
But most are good people. Hardworking folks who just want to support their families. And you know this. It is not right for you to call them “scum” or “criminals.” Have you been down to Mexico? I bet you have. If so, you’ve seen what it is like down there. If you drive from Tijuana to Ensenada along the Mexican version of the Pacific Coast Highway, you will see shantytowns of people living in CARDBOARD BOXES — no lie, I’ve seen it! I last saw the one on the PCH was a few years ago, I don’t know if they’ve been torn down or not, but there are plenty more of these places in Mexico City, etc.
If I grew up living in a cardboard box, I too would come here illegally. You wouldn’t want to raise your kids in Mexcio, and neither do the illegals, those “morally bankrupt scum.”
The really sickening thing about people like Susan is that here in SoCal, they are surrounded by hardworking, decent Mexicans every single day. The last time she went to the car wash, the guys busting their ass to dry off her car were Mexican. The people working hard behind the counter at Jack in the Box are all Mexicans. The guys trimming her shrubs, the list goes on and on. These are decent people who work very, very hard. But Susan looks right through them. To her, they are all criminals! “Morally bankrupt scum.”
February 28th, 2006 07:07
Simply stated, and trying to keep this discussion on-topic, I doubt that illegal aliens are a significant component in the housing bubble issue. The problems are speculators and typical middle-class families buying homes they cannot afford on ridiculous lending terms.
February 28th, 2006 07:10
Hey Joe, I’ll take the bait. Firstly, the fact they cost our once great nation a minimum of $35B in entitlements, while they also work the underground economy. I am not a bigot, just sick and tired of both the Democr*ps and the Repulicants looking for cheap labor. Furthermore, we sold hopefully on the top, waiting for the bubble to pop, and have been awaken at 2 AM from their loud music, they have vandalized the white American’s cars in the car ports, stolen white kids and black children’s bikes, have absolutely no respect for the laws of our country, and don’t belong here. I live with the scum, so don’t preach your cr*p to me. Oh, and they don’t speak English, unless its for their benefit. They are scum.
And btw, I’ve seen them steal from stores, not pay taxes, have numerous anchor babies on America’s tab. They are driving nicer cars than a lot of Americans. Its not legal nor moral money. BTW, I don’t use the car wash, since I don’t trust them. I’m a minority of higher ethics. My family came legally through Ellis Island. They didn’t hop the border.Enough is enough. End of subject. Case closed. This board is about housing.
February 28th, 2006 07:21
Susan M,
Our great-grandparents used to say the same things about the Irish and Italians. “They dress funny and steal our jobs and we have to pick up the tab because they are deadbeats and they listen to dumb music and they don’t speak our language.” As a successful society, we will always be “invaded” by people from less successful countries. The cultures will clash, then eventually merge. It is human nature, and you and I would do the same thing.
On a side note, I think it is preferrable to be invaded by hard-working Catholics who share our vices, rather than being invaded by those who are illegally immigrating to, say, France and Germany.
February 28th, 2006 07:22
Joe Schmoe:
You are an embarrassment!
Also quite stupid, since you want your country turned into the same third world shithole mexico is. I suggest you move some of these lovely people into your home and YOU pay for them. Until you do, please stfu
February 28th, 2006 08:01
You all are racist. If you divide out the Mexican’s and say that they are bad as a race then you are a racist. If it was actually about Illegal Immigrants and not the fact that they are Mexicans then the Treasurer of the National Minutemen would not have been an Illegal Immigrant! Let me repeat that: The TREASURER of the MINUTEMEN was an ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT! For something like 20 years no less! I don’t have her name right in front of me, but she is German and married and American soldier in Germany. They lived at various Army bases around the US for 20 years or so, during which time she never got her citizenship. They divorced. She runs a restaurant near the border of Mexico I think in Arizona. She was on the local Zoning Board until it was discovered that she was ILLEGAL and not a US citizen, but a German. She then got her US citizenship (and even had the gall to comment that everybody else in the room getting their citizenship the day she got hers were all mexican and asian!). Now she is the TREASURER of the MINUTEMEN! Obviously our immigration system is broken! Who let this racist person in?
February 28th, 2006 08:03
Assuming that Robert is correct about the issue of “inviible homeowners”, it seems to me it would be more on-topic to direct some ire at the lenders who made this situation possible. If some undocumented immigrants have been able to abuse the system, it’s because the system was vulnerable to such abuse.
February 28th, 2006 08:04
Can you feel the love people?
February 28th, 2006 08:19
Blissful Ignoramus
February 28th, 2006 07:07 10
Simply stated, and trying to keep this discussion on-topic, I doubt that illegal aliens are a significant component in the housing bubble issue. The problems are speculators and typical middle-class families buying homes they cannot afford on ridiculous lending terms.
Blissful:
I have to disagree. I have seen a lot of what Robert describes here in NoVa. While I would not go so far as to label with bad language, many are and have totally taken advantage of the system in NoVa. My old neighborhood turned into an area where you would see exactly what Robert describes and consequently it turned into a pit.
Do I blame illegal immigrants for coming here and packing into homes? No. But I can say that when this happens areas rapidly become unsanitary. Imagine not enough bathrooms in house where people are packed in. I won’t get too graphic here.
Most of these homes in my neighborhood were bought by people WITHOUT green cards. My direct next door neighbor got a loan without a green card.
Sadly when a neighborhood goes in this direction, 95% hardworking illegals, you also get about 5% MS-13 which totally screw the neighborhood up and terrorize everyone.
I think that this will be one of the big surprises of this bubble, how many loans in ‘04-’05 were given to illegal immigrants. Like Robert said, there’s no downside to doing this and I do believe it has become a pretty good scam for some.
Please don’t label me a racist, b/c I’m not, but I’ve been through the hell that these neighborhoods can become and seen it first hand. In my opinion it’s poverty driven not this or that race but none the less, I think this will be one of the surprises of this bust, lending to non-citizens.
novasold
February 28th, 2006 08:20
I would say leverage your current expertise and move into the foreclosure side of the industry. It’ll be booming for the next few years. (I’ve told Property Grunt the same thing)
February 28th, 2006 08:24
The double standard in this country never fails to amaze me. The “Criminal invaders” would not contiuously come over the border to the US if the corporate AMERICA
February 28th, 2006 08:28
finish to my previous post…
“..capitalism machine didn’t continuously look to the illegal immigrant labor pool to keep their costs down.”
February 28th, 2006 08:29
Ohsodelmar;
Save your smears, being racist only applies to caucasians, and I’m impervious to it. It’s perfectly ok to be a racist if you are one of the so called minorities, like say LA RAZA!
I am sick of the double standard.
Now, back to the bubble!
February 28th, 2006 08:39
people who sell McMansions and move into scummy apartment complexes should have done more due diligence on the apt community - most every city/town around the world has better and worse areas to live…
will the US become mexico? NO! yes there are trade offs with the immigration problem, but to think that packing up all illegals and dropping them back into TJ will solve the problem is so short sighted that THAT’s embarrasing -
- what is embarrasing is people who think they are morally superior than others
- what is embarrasing is people who have limited knowledge but can’t seem to keep their unenlighted hate filled opinions to themselves
dumping all mexican immigrants into one bucket is just like saying that all people in riverside are “white trash”
that is just like saying that female living in the OC is a stuck up plastic surgery junkie (ooops maybe i’m not helping my point - ha ha !)
point is there are good and bad people everywhere in all races and cultures, but bigoted, racist comments show no intelligence, but lack thereof
February 28th, 2006 08:43
People for people,
You should not be throwing stones, your post is hate filled in and of itself.
Back to the bubble please
February 28th, 2006 08:43
Novasold is an example of someone with a resonable point of view. He notes that Illegal aliens cause a lot of problems. He is right. He wants to see less of them. So do I.
However, he doesn’t start ranting about “Criminal Invaders” or calling decent, hardworking people “morally bankrupt scum.”
February 28th, 2006 08:56
I have to disagree. I have seen a lot of what Robert describes here in NoVa. While I would not go so far as to label with bad language, many are and have totally taken advantage of the system in NoVa.
Citing a neighborhood in NoVa where it’s happening doesn’t mean it’s a significant issue with regard to the housing bubble on a national, or even regional scale.
When a large majority of homes are being financed on various I/O and ARM loans in the bubble areas, I’m sorry, but illegal aliens are going to be pretty low on the list of contributors to the bubble. In front of them are going to be a whole lot of people who look like you and me. I have no doubt that the introduction of homes into a neighborhood that house multiple illegal families is a bad thing for those neighborhoods, and I would submit that that is what should be expected in an economy that includes both poverty and housing unaffordability. But that’s an issue for another blog.
February 28th, 2006 08:58
From my blog in Oct:
Afforbable housing for the worker class. This is the big “problem” where I live now. You cannot purchase a SFR for less than $500k that you would let your child live in. This months’ (Sept ‘05) MEDIAN (not average): $635k.
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm [Ventura County at the bottom]
Supposedly this is going to mean our housekeepers and gardeners and even bookkeepers are going to be “lost” and we idle rich will be helpless. Quite the opposite. Instead we will buy Roombas, Rainbirds and Quicken thereby employing robotocists, Landscape Architects, electrical engineers and software programmers who can afford to live here. This IMHO is “A Good Thing.”
What’s this got to do with illegal immigration? A lot through a connection most people see in reverse. I’d much rather pay for a civil engineer, GIS coordinator, software vendor and robot crop picker machinery salesman each getting a living wage rather than tolerate the barely better than slave wage illegal immigration generating handpicking system we use now. The problem is we are subsidizing the slave worker market and taxing and regulating the technology fields mentioned above.
February 28th, 2006 09:08
Okay, I’ll take a stab to tie this into the real topic…
A, the illegals are costing the gov’t a large amount of money. Once housing does pop and the tax money slows down, this will be even more of a burden. We are having issues here in Virginia with illegals driving cars and killing people (and themselves).
B, it’s the same greed. Companies hire illegals to save money. Even if the companies ARE actually filing the proper paperwork, I bet the illegals are easier to bend into working extra hours. I think there should be stiff penalties for anyone that employes illegals, but it’s a tough issue. What if the illegal has fake documentation? Then it shouldn’t be on the employer. But what if the employer helped him get the fake documentation so he could have cheap labor. Tough situation, hard to proove.
I don’t know if you know this, but much of the US corporations see the illegals as their new growth market. Our system is one where a company isn’t rewarded on wall street for sustaining themselves. They must grow profits. So it will forever push the workers lower and lower.
It’s just like the union issue. Are unions bad? Yes. Are unions good? Yes. There shouldn’t need to be unions. Companies that are big and profitable should pay fair wages. Some people just want to live and raise kids, and are happy without a fleet of new vehicles and a pressboard palace in a snotty neighborhood.
February 28th, 2006 09:16
The National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, salivating, reports that according to its own study “Undocumented Latino immigrants would add an estimated $44 billion in new mortgages to the housing economy…”
- http://www.vdare.com/guzzardi/050813_mortgages.htm
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Their lender, Mitchell Bank, hasn’t had a single late payment or delinquency on the $3.5 million of ITIN mortgage loans it has made since 2000, said James Maloney, chairman. “These are our best-performing assets,” he said. “These are folks who are appreciative of the fact that we’re willing to take a chance on them.”
Second Federal Savings of Chicago has made $90 million of ITIN loans in the past nine months, said Mark Doyle, chief executive.
Also in Chicago, First Bank of the Americas has executed $12 million in such mortgages since April 2004, said Frank Montanez, vice president for loan origination. “We see it not only as part of our charter, to help provide housing, but it’s consistent with good business,” Doyle said. “We have an outstanding credit history with that market. … They have a good work ethic; they have a pride of ownership.”
At Texas Bank in Fort Worth, ITIN mortgage customers often come in person after a sweaty day’s work to make loan payments in cash, said Joe Barnhart, president of the mortgage division. The program is so popular that once in a while, someone with a valid Social Security number submits an ITIN application.
“Most of these loans don’t get refinanced; most of these houses don’t get sold and paid off compared to other groups of loans, which makes them more valuable to us,” Barnhart said. “A much larger proportion of these borrowers pay ahead on their loans than the general population.”
- http://www.newhousenews.com/archive/lewis031505.html
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
It’s a large market, and they sound like responsible borrowers. However, until Fannie Mae purchases those mortgages with ITIN numbers, there will be a bottleneck in the system.
I don’t know of any illegals around here that have bought any real estate, so I can’t comment on how they keep up the house. In general, Mexicans are hard working and frugal. I see the gardeners and day laborers, and have had only good experiences with them. I suppose those in construction could lose their job and skip the country instead of facing foreclosure, but how big would the effect really be?
February 28th, 2006 09:38
Here are a few quick replies:
1. I don’t think LEND will end up like Encore, because if you know LEND, they are a very ‘profit’ driven company. They are known in the industry for having ‘higher rates’, but excellent service and getting tough deals done that ‘make sense’. To give you an idea, LEND will pretty much always be one of the highest ‘rate’ companies out there. When rates change, LEND changes rates…they don’t wait like other companies do. LEND reps carry a laptop to price deals, they do not carry rate sheets. Each deal is put into a computer pricing program called the ‘rev calc’ or revenue calculator. This tells the rep exactly how much the company will make on the loan, and how much commission they will make on the loan. LENDs comp plan for the reps is tied to revenue generation. Make loans that don’t make the company money….you don’t get paid. Make loans that pay the company well…get paid well.
2. Please stop the derogitory comments here. I know that people have had bad experiences, but lets not get emotional. I have friends in a 900k home on a cul-de-sac that were calling the police 2-3 times per month because of their neighbors. They finally opened the garage to see it filled with cots. The house was being occupied by 20+ people. The ‘garage people’ were paying 200-300 bucks a month to ‘live’ there. Not to hard to make a 5-6k mortgage payment when 20 people are footing the bill. There was some illegal activity going on as well, but the police said their hands were tied other than removing the people with warrants or offenses.
That said, in SoCal, the lenders have lowered standards and enabled pretty much anybody to get a loan…with VERY little documentation. You want to blame it on something…blame it on STATED INCOME. The lenders are/were buying off on the 10-20k a month ‘landscaping’ and ‘housekeeping’ businesses for a long time. They were hanging the deal on the “CPA” letter that said that is what they were making. These deals traditionally perform VERY well…again, it is more than 2 people making the payment in many situations.
*I just saw the post my mtnrunner come in…makes perfect sense to me, and that is what I hear from the lenders. They ‘like’ the loans because they know the ‘borrowers’ will pay. They know they will take as many ‘roommates’ as it takes to make the payment. They will ‘find a way’ and that is what they care about. They will only care if/when 20 people move in next door to them, and there are 8-10 cars at the house at all times. Again, not always the case, but very few people make enough to afford the houses in SoCal.
They are single family homes for a reason. For the same reason you don’t want a ‘frat house’ next door to you with 20+ college kids living in it, most don’t want 20+ people living cramming into your basic single family residence in SoCal.
I don’t blame anybody for wanting to be here, or taking roommates to make things work…but the system found a way to make money, and open the ‘american dream’ to anybody and everybody. Again, all goes back to the lowered standards and not hardy asking for documentation on loans. This ‘benefits’ everybody, not just hispanics, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how this could be abused.
3. I don’t think this has had a ‘profound’ affect on the national bubble, but it DOES have an impact in local areas. Again, look at it is demand, and a pool of people that are now in the market. Remember, there are lots of houses out there NOT on the market. If you look at the market when 2-3k homes were on the market, even if there is just 200-300 of these 100% stated loans being done, it makes a difference. Just the 2-3 shops in my territory were doing 30-60 loans per month (during the good times)…and these were not the only shops doing this. So it does have an impact.
4. Thanks Ted!
5. Let’s get back to the housing bubble and mortgages, and leave the “racist” talk behind. That said, I think the word ‘racist’ is misused too often. Racist is often used in place of the word ’stereotype’. A ‘racist’ believes one race is superior to another based strictly on race. That is not the same as a ’stereotype’ which is what I see from people more often.
I hope this helps some…
SoCalMtgGuy
February 28th, 2006 09:54
if the powers to be in this country really think illegals is a problem, if they don’t profit directly from their cheap labor, if they don’t feel the economy benefit from this labor source, they would have already done something about it. the wall would have already been built. the truth is everyone from the top down directly or indirectly benefits, so the border control remains a open one eye and close one eye operation.
this is all about a cost vs. benefit analysis. once the cost reachs higher than the benefit, the wall will be build within 6 months.
February 28th, 2006 10:15
Joe Schmoe wrote :
But most are good people. Hardworking folks who just want to support their families. And you know this. It is not right for you to call them “scum” or “criminals.”
Joe thank you. I ditto your comments. As a Latino with immigrant ancestry, I find it disgusting that this kind of bigotry exists in 2006.
Just a note: As I exit my offramp everyday, I see 2 guys. Guy on left is the brown guy selling flowers or oranges. Guy on right is the white dude still in his 30s, meth/crack head looking for a handout. WTF??
February 28th, 2006 10:20
SOCal…
BTW..I suggest you BAN Julia from your blog. Her comments are disgusting!! Totaly out of line for this excellent intelligent blog. What a troll. If anyone belongs in a ghetto its people like her and her ‘ghetto’ attitude.
February 28th, 2006 10:22
Illegal immigration is a net benefit to the Federal govt. Billions of SocSec deposits (taxes) collected annually that will never be paid back for but one example. It is locally that we suffer. Ventura County is hiring 22 translators. English? No, these people will be translating Mixteca to Spanish because there are 10,000 Mixtecans here that neither speak Spanish or read and write in any language. The job of the translators will be to get these people access to the free services in the county. Walk a mile in my shoes, go to my daughters high school for parents night and sit through the Principal’s speech anf then sit through the translation. For both there is also an ALS translator. So, instead of a free laptop for every legal resident we get to pay for the Spanish translator and trilingual signer. Hey, everybody who thinks there is a net benefit is welcome to pay my uninsured motorist insurance.
February 28th, 2006 10:28
Obviously someone DIDNT listen to SOCals request to drop it. As noted, no one here is denying (including myself) there IS an ‘illegal’ immigrant problem in CA. Just dont bash on all immigrant of Mexican decent. Back to the Housing bubble please?
February 28th, 2006 10:41
The problem (as it has been stated) that there are too many loans given to people who are abusing the system one way or another. I had a co-worker in another state who saw her neighborhood degrade that way… becoming home to drug dealers who would buy a house as a front, or to a single family or druggies who would threaten her or rain abuse on her.
Obviously, you can’t do anything but “stated income” if you’re a drug dealer…
February 28th, 2006 10:42
“In At the Rise,”
IMO illegal immigration will have a lot to do with how the bubble grew and plays out. We are talking about adding hundreds of thousands of units of unanticipated housing demand distorting the purchase side. The practice of multiple family purchases also strains local services (taxes). The ripple effects are amazing, we have to pay police more because we need more police and they can’t afford to live locally just as senoir officers cash out because of the changing nature of the community and tougher job.
These people got their loans from ECR and their ilk. Like it or not the topics are intertwined.
February 28th, 2006 10:49
Ohsodelmar;
Save your smears, being racist only applies to caucasians, and I’m impervious to it. It’s perfectly ok to be a racist if you are one of the so called minorities, like say LA RAZA!
I am sick of the double standard.
SoCalMtgGuy is correct. Too often we use racist and stereotypes to mean the same thing. I will provide a few textbook definitions just to drive the point home (no pun intended).
Racism: When an elite or dominant group develops a social system in which race is the major criterion of role assigment, role rewards, and socialization and has the power to enforce those decisions.
Stereoype: An exaggerated belief associated with a category is a sterotype. For example: the attribution of identical characteristics to any person in a group, regardless of the actual variation among memebers of that group.
It is actually good Sue and Julia that you expressed your feelings with regards to Spanish-speaking peoples, whether legally or illegally in this country. It is only through honest communication people can come to terms with their stereotypes that drive racist action. Everyone is guilty of it, including myself.
February 28th, 2006 11:03
“It is actually good Sue and Julia that you expressed your feelings with regards to Spanish-speaking peoples, whether legally or illegally in this country.”
OK Dr Phil of the RE Industry..please. These 2 hefers are clearly making racist remarks. “Shithole of Mexico’ and “I don’t use the car wash, since I don’t trust them. I’m a minority of higher ethics.” Oh no, no elite or dominating group comment there.
February 28th, 2006 11:17
In at the top
What’s a hefer? Perhaps you meant heifer, you just can’t drop it can you?
February 28th, 2006 11:29
Yes HEIFER, I will refrain from using the more appropriate ‘C’ word to be a gentleman. OK..Officialy dropped…like you drop your panties
February 28th, 2006 11:33
Actually we don’t have to deal with sterotypes or racism. Just plain old legal defintions. An illegal immigrant is in this country illegally, pretty simple. You can’t be law-abiding and be here illegally. I suggest you go back to Plato’s account of Socrates and the Laws. What do Italians, Mexicans and Irish have in common? Central Papal authority, which is in many ways ininmical to democracy/individualism if taken literally — and was VERY central to the debates in American history against these immigrants. However you wish to rewrite history to fit your own theories, papal authority was a big issue once in this country, a well-documented fact. It’s convient, simple and self-righteous (not to mention lazy) to claim all history is the history of racism as many do. To prove otherwise we need only consider there were bitter conflicts between Catholics and Protestants in which both shared the same ethnicity. Simple-minded views of history lead to bad decisions in buying houses and law making.
February 28th, 2006 11:34
Illegal Aliens are breaking the law. It’s stunning to see calls of “racism” thrown around.
Don’t like the law, change the law.
Until then, Illegal Aliens are breaking the law and should be deported, regardless if their skin color is pink, yellow, brown, or purple.
February 28th, 2006 11:43
i suspect we will see more of this in the coming years when this all unwinds. Blame it on the browns or the blacks when the economy stalls. The real criminals are the one pushing the funny money, robbing us all of our savings, making our dollar worhtless. We are all being played, again
February 28th, 2006 11:45
Roy writes: “Racism: When an elite or dominant group develops a social system in which race is the major criterion of role assigment, role rewards, and socialization and has the power to enforce those decisions.”
That’s a bogus definition Roy, as it implies only the majority can be “racist.”
Racism in my view is: “when one has a dislike for a specific race.”
All people, of all skin colors, can be racist.
February 28th, 2006 11:45
What is ’stunning’ is how you completely ingore and turn the other cheek to racist remarks I quoted by other posters on this blog. How convenient.
February 28th, 2006 12:07
In at the Top,
Please drop it, and you are anything but a gentleman!
February 28th, 2006 12:10
Sorry if you disagree FirstTimeBuyer, but the definition used by the education and legal profession specifically dictates that “power” is the key component in racism. You cannot take action when someone has power over you, especially when it comes to social structure.
For example in this blog discussion, Spanish-speaking people are regulated to many different roles within society, but none of these roles have any real power. No one has described anyone with a Hispanic/Latino/Chicano background as being a buisness owner, CEO, government official, etc. Through the examination of language of these blog entries, a structure of “power” can determined. In American society, these people do not poses power. Now if we were in Mexico, white Euro-Americans would technically be the minority, subject to racism.
Hope this helps clarify things a bit…
February 28th, 2006 12:20
I think it’s pretty hilarious that people carry on about ‘our’ country being invaded. If you aren’t an American Indian, you really have no room to talk.
That said, I think it’s insane that someone here illegally can get anything from our government other than a ride back home….let alone a home loan. I know a lot of these folks, and as has been stated, the vast majority are very hard working and frugal, and are just looking for a better life. Immigration law needs to change to allow this kind of person to legally become a citizen instead of having to sneak in…then all the other inconsistancies go away.
February 28th, 2006 12:23
As far as the discussion of illegal immigration and the effects on the U.S. economy, I encourage everyone to read the book “Reefer Madness” by Eric Schlosser. It is an interesting mixed-methods (quantitative and qualitative) on the underground American economy of marijuana, pornography, and illegal immigrants used to pick strawberrys. It sounds like a wide stretch, but some valid points are made.
We are in a catch-22. According to Ben Bernake’s own textbook for ECON 101, a minimum wage is bad for the economy. By turning a blind eye to illegal immigration, we sustain a service economy that benefits those with an education to grow with the economy. If all illegal aliens were deported magically in one day, wages would depreciate for everyone. The negative side is the burden placed on social services, such as schools and hospitals by a large illegal population. Eventually, evryone pays for it through higher health care insurance premiums and higher property taxes. We are just borrowing against time.
February 28th, 2006 12:25
GET BACK ON TOPIC PLEASE!
Be the better person and don’t feel the need to always get the last word.
I don’t like deleting comments and I have only had to do it ONE time before. Please don’t make me do that, or start making everybody ‘register’ for the site.
Let’s get back to mortgages, real estate, and the bubble…
Thank you!
SoCalMtgGuy
February 28th, 2006 12:32
Point taken….as anyone noticed how many shares of Countrywide that Mozilo has dumped on the market last week? This past week he dumped 52,500 extra shares. I think that is confirmation that he is backing up is statement about housing market value. Any thoughts?
February 28th, 2006 12:32
Can’t we all just get along?
February 28th, 2006 12:35
Check out http://www.brokeruniverse.com/subprime/, referended on Ben’s bubble blog.
Panelist: Nonprime Going Mainstream
In the wake of the prime lending sector’s refinance contraction, the nonprime sector has picked up and become more mainstream, accounting for 28% of total loan originations, according to a panel member at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Mortgage Servicing Conference and Expo in Phoenix. Rick Glass, managing partner with R.T. Glass & Associates, made the comments at a panel called “Repositioning Non-Prime Servicing,” where he and other sector executives shared their thoughts on key challenges and competitive strategies in this market. Michael Drawdy, senior vice president at Countrywide Financial Corp., said half of subprime ARMs will be due in the summer and over the next 14 months. “There will be some people who can’t pay for an ARM change,” Mr. Drawdy said. “That is why you must make sure there is a system in place for collections — to make sure borrowers know their options.” Panelists talked about repayment plans and ARM modifications aimed at helping borrowers stay in their homes. Over the next 12-24 months, there is a potential for severe delinquencies, they said.
“Severe delinquencies?”
February 28th, 2006 12:42
Sorry, I see SoCalMtgGuy’s post.
I’ll cease discussion of “racism.”
Back on topic!
February 28th, 2006 12:55
I’m sorry I started this with a topical comment. My point was that there is as much housing danger associated with “stated residence” as there is with “stated income.” Both -should- raise the risk premium but as we are finding out, not enough. Heck, let’s not even imagine stated residence applies only to immigration status, look at all the people who bought investment properties claiming primary residence.
February 28th, 2006 13:08
Actually, I’ve heard stories from friends that had friends, who said that in truth some of the illegals make very good money. So it could be that illegals in the higher ranks are making a large amount of money doing landscaping, and are able to carry large mortgages. Someone getting paid and not paying taxes can make a significant amount over someone who plays by the rules.
The bubble could take away their business as well, resulting in a downturn for their tax-free income.
Does anyone know what kind of money the construction workers hired by the large builders are taking home? I’m sure they use multiple levels of companies to separate themselves from the risk.
I do know someone who said he was working in construction in the Hampton Roads/Norfolk/Virginia Beach area. I will ping him. Last time I spoke to him (1 month ago) he said there were still crazy amounts of homes going up. Even though it doesn’t really look like it, they are squeezing houses everywhere. I haven’t seen much of a market downturn here yet.
February 28th, 2006 13:22
Sorry SoCalMtgGuy….I have to end this:
Firsttime buyer said:
Racism is the dislike of another race — it has nothing to do with “power.”
Are you saying a minority can’t be a racist? Absurd.
“You cannot take action when someone has power over you, especially when it comes to social structure.”
Being a racist has nothing to do with “taking action,” but instead disliking a given race.
You have accurate defined prejudice, not racism. All people are racially prejudiced, regardless of racial or ethnic identity. But this does not mean that all people are racists. Racism is the “collective” actions of a dominant racial group.
OK….I am finished. I’m sorry again SoCalMtgGuy.
February 28th, 2006 13:24
SoCal,
I love your blog, but you made a very serious factual error. Encore Capital Group (ECPG) is not the company you are talking about. ECR is ECC Capital Group. Very big difference. I caught this because I just interviewed with Encore Capital Group at their HQ in San Diego on Friday.
February 28th, 2006 13:24
Whats that old adage “When in Rome do like the Romans”Should We be preparing for the fall of the Empire! Our armies try to conquer the world to impose our democracy and control natural resources. The rest of the world hates us, but will suckle our tits until they run dry. We have no useful or affordable exports. We are forced to rely on near slave labor, Because most jobs are benieth us. We are over sexed, over payed, over druged,”illeagal and prescription” over mortgaged, over borrowed, over lent, over taxed,over stressed, and over worked!!! Please feel free to add on to the pile.
February 28th, 2006 13:43
Jwm in SD,
If I made an error, I apologize and will correct it…but I don’t think I did.
ECR is the stock symbol for ECC Capital group. See the links and info below.
http://www.ecccapital.com/AboutECCCapital.htm
Our Businesses
WHOLESALE
Encore Credit Corp., a subsidiary of ECC Capital Corporation, is a wholesale nonconforming lender. Encore launched lending operations in March 2002. Encore originates and purchases nonconforming residential mortgage loans, primarily on a wholesale basis, through a network of independent mortgage brokers and mortgage lenders.
www.EncoreCredit.com
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=182578&p=irol-irhome
ECC Capital, based in Irvine, California, was formed in April 2004 to build and manage a portfolio of nonconforming residential mortgage loans. It wholly owns Encore Credit, a nationwide mortgage banking company that originates and purchases nonconforming residential mortgage loans, primarily on a wholesale basis. Encore Credit originates and purchases loans through a network of independent mortgage brokers and a limited number of mortgage lenders, and is currently developing a retail operation.
What did I miss???
SoCalMtgGuy
February 28th, 2006 14:51
While you 2 guys fight about the definition of racism, I just found out my gardener just closed on his investment property rental… get this, he already has renters, his illegal buddies. LOL! Now thats what I call a hustler. So keep fighting about definitions and stereotypes. Meanwhile, Juan Valdez is taking advantage of this bubble and making cheddar $$$. Only in Amurika! (he yells while he rides into the sunset on his donkey). God bless this country.
February 28th, 2006 14:58
Was just watching Bloomberg on CNBC. They interviewed an “expert” from the mortgage industry, following up on today’s existing home numbers. He said he anticipates a 5% price decline in 2006 with the trend continuing into 2007. I.e., it won’t be as bad as the last downturn (10-15%). “This time is different,” I guess. When asked about whether any types of mortgages could present any future problems, he said that the problem was people putting no money down. He explained that IO loans were fine, assuming people put 30-40% down. (Yeah, this is the norm, I’m sure!). I guess with 30% down you’re not supposed to care when you sell the house next year for 5% less. No mention of “Stated” loans being a problem. He also mentioned that the industry was cutting staff in many places.
February 28th, 2006 16:48
Roy and FirstTimeBuyer
I said “stay on topic”…and both of you said “ok”…but then kept posting back and forth.
So I deleted the comments after I said stay on topic. I left one comment from each of you that ’said’ you would stop.
Post all you want as long as it is on topic.
Thank you.
SoCalMtgGuy
February 28th, 2006 17:09
Well, now that the market’s turned, we’ll probably see more headlines such as this
Former Charlotte real estate broker sentenced for fraud
There seems to be more to it but the relevant paragraph may foretell things to come:
“Mortgage loan documents were riddled with false statements such as sales price, buyers’ incomes and source of down payment, records show. Many of the properties were eventually foreclosed on by lenders, records show.”
http://dwb.newsobserver.com/news/ncwire_news/story/2900151p-9354764c.html
February 28th, 2006 17:31
Is this an indicator of the LA real estate market? It sure seems to be an unusual approach.
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/ers/136973645.html
February 28th, 2006 18:04
“The rest of the world hates us, but will suckle our tits until they run dry. We have no useful or affordable exports. We are forced to rely on near slave labor, Because most jobs are beneath us. We are over sexed, over paid, over drugged, (illegal and prescription) over mortgaged, over borrowed, over lent, over taxed, over stressed, and over worked!!! Please feel free to add on to the pile.”
Don’t forget, one of America’s major exports is porn!
I believe God may use this next bubble collapse as a judgement against this nation.
February 28th, 2006 18:28
how on earth does someone get a mortgage with no credit history? an undocumented immigrant is just that: undocumented. no SSN, green card, no credit history, etc. they are ‘credit ghosts.’
unless the mortgage-makers have totally gone off the deep end and just hand over the money with no questions asked… sure, no-doc “income” (heh) abounds, but even these buyers must have some sort of credit history, right?
February 28th, 2006 18:30
We have many useful exports: military technology, space technology, nuclear technology, a “stable” US dollar that is used to index most of the world’s commodities and is the domination of choice in my third-world contracts. Unfortunately all of the above can be used to kill us by our enemies (even our dollars), but that hasn’t stopped us from selling it anyway.
February 28th, 2006 19:39
Unfortunately, we import $700 billion per year more than we export, a sum that approximates 5% of GDP. Our dollars leave this country as assets and come back to us as liabilities when the foreigners (mostly Asians buy our bonds. Much of the money leaving our shores is from “home equity extraction.” Someday, somewhere, somebody will call in the loans. When it happens there will be hell to pay.
February 28th, 2006 19:53
42 - read the links I posted above about the lending to people without SSNs. You need to have lived in this country for 2 years, have a credit history and a ITIN #. The problem is, that Fannie Mae has not yet decided to purchase these loans, so they are only made by banks which keep these loans in-house. The articles stated that the illegals have a perfect payment history, no foreclosures at all, so the lenders really like to offer those products. Another comment - when we were building our house, we had a few illegals working on it. We saved so much money, and I realized at that time, that all the money that is spent on education/healthcare, etc. on illegals is more than made up for by the money we save on paying them less for a range of services that you may not even realize. The construction of your house could cost 10 - 20% more if you had to pay an American worker, who must pay 33% of wages to workers’ comp in California. My entire foundation crew was illegal, and they were such hard workers, my husband and I were complementing them constantly. The head guy paid them daily, cash. So I see that we do benefit from illegals working for low wages, and that is precisely why President Bush and the other politicians are in favor of keeping them here. You can rest assured that their economic contribution is positive, else they would enfore the immigration laws. Wake up, y’all, it’s a benefit to our economy to have a black market for workers. Be grateful they are here.
February 28th, 2006 20:02
If being in a room where Robert Cote and Lou Minatti are the voice of reason does not cause you to question the company you keep, there is no hope for you.
February 28th, 2006 20:19
“the market has turned”…….I believe was the topic. I got in Socal in 2000 and got out in late 2003. In retrospect, I got out and left money on the table. I have several friends who got in in 2003, and have paper money on these properties with ARM’s. A couple have confided in me that they too believe that the run-up is over and they are actively listing their places in the last few days. I think they might be too late. I see it unwinding “quicker and further” in some areas than many pundits are predicting. I think people who bought in Socal in 2004 will have their gains wiped out by Christmas 2006. I hope I’m wrong because I think it is going to hurt so many so badly.
-Great destination site SOCAL. Time spent here is some of my better moments in the day.
February 28th, 2006 20:41
Socalmtgguy,
What’s the status of all the downtown SD condo highrise stuff. Are prices flat? DOM? When I left in May 2004, lots of people were flipping them and making tons of loot. A friend in a highrise told me last week that her HOA fees had just hit 900/month.
March 1st, 2006 08:02
People are insane. This site provides ‘opportunities’ for loaning out money to strangers. Crazy!
http://www.prosper.com
March 1st, 2006 08:13
“If being in a room where Robert Cote and Lou Minatti are the voice of reason does not cause you to question the company you keep, there is no hope for you.”
Hey now. Robert is always the voice of reason.
March 1st, 2006 08:21
“If being in a room where Robert Cote and Lou Minatti are the voice of reason does not cause you to question the company you keep, there is no hope for you.”
Hey now. Robert is always the voice of reason.
Sniff. I’m sorry. I promise to try harder. Heck if almost inciting a race riot in a chatroom isn’t unreasonable I don’t know what else to do? I know, shout “Shout SALE PENDING! in a room full of hungry realtors.”
March 1st, 2006 09:04
Perfect solution to the “illegal immigrant” question:
MAKE ALL ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS CITIZENS! Don’t deport them. Any illegal immigrant found in this country should be instantly slapped with citizenship. Why? This means they HAVE to pay taxes, their children HAVE to go to school, and the companies that hire them also HAVE to pay taxes. If they don’t obey the rules, they get thrown in the slammer. Problem solved. End of story. Mkay. Thx. Gbye.
March 1st, 2006 12:11
reardonsteel - check the forum at www.piggington.com, there are some posts about the downtown SD condo market. It sounds like the prices have come down somewhat, most projects that are not started may not start at all since the builders can’t get the minimum sales to obtain preconstruction financing, and those that are on the market are having serious price reductions. Check out the funniest thing I have read for weeks in the forums:
http://housingbubblecasualty.com/forum/index.php?topic=217.0
March 1st, 2006 14:03
Hi all,
Would some of you please explain the foreclosure process.
What exactly happends?
How long does it take?
If it is bank owned is it a set price?
If it is an auction where, how, and with whom do you bid?
Any and all information would be appreciated.
Thanks….
March 1st, 2006 15:38
Read www.foreclosureforum.com and it’s related links. Lurk a few months and you’ll find out everything you could ever want to know.
March 1st, 2006 17:22
“Why is that realtor wearing a thong over her skin-tight aerobics pants?”
Perhaps it’s not a thong but a chastity belt. Maybe she’s tired of screwing her customers.
March 1st, 2006 18:42
mtnrunner2: thanks for the info.
at the risk of banishment, I have no problem with undocumented workers and agree with you completely.
I was just curious how one gets a mortgage without a credit history. apparently even this is possible in FantasyMortgage-Land.
March 2nd, 2006 07:51
“In addition to accepting ITINs, banks are being flexible when they look at creditworthiness, since many immigrants don’t have a traditional credit history, said Anna Paulson, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank in Chicago. For instance, the bank may consider rent and utility bill payments, or a history of sending money to family overseas as evidence that a customer is a good risk.”
From the link I cited above.
March 2nd, 2006 11:04
“Spanish-speaking people are regulated to many different roles within society, but none of these roles have any real power. No one has described anyone with a Hispanic/Latino/Chicano background as being a buisness owner, CEO, government official, etc.”
What about torturer-in-chief Alberto Gonsalez?
March 2nd, 2006 11:09
“I think it’s pretty hilarious that people carry on about ‘our’ country being invaded. If you aren’t an American Indian, you really have no room to talk.”
What a moronic statement. American Indians didn’t draft the constition. “Our country” is a political entity, not a land mass.
March 2nd, 2006 11:18
When my ancestors crossed the border it was legal. Anyone wishing to assert that the current rule of law is wrong/immoral whatever is invited to unlock their doors and publish their address.
March 2nd, 2006 11:35
Interesting commentary on the BK legislation and the recent BK’s going through counseling.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thomas+Kostigen’s+Ethics+Monitor&siteid=mktw&dist=
March 2nd, 2006 13:00
You guys are proving the point. After the waters settled you couldnt resist and take it back to the racial pissing game. Its in your blood I guess. Let it go.
March 2nd, 2006 16:30
Wow!!! Notice the housing in San Diego on inventory is going down?!? I’ve finally caved on buying, dont miss out everyone, like SoCal said, if you can afford it buy it, but do your homework. I dont feel now that this is going to be a crash, U.S. economy is in Globalizing, we just inked a nuclear power deal with India (1.1 billion people) + chinese love our money, even if the long term rates are lower than the short. Chinese are very sharp people and understand the fundamentals of american democracy and what stabalization it brings for them. They wont withdraw there money from our bonds, the WORLD loves US dollars. Now with India needing some of our goods, it brings us forward to a new CENTURY of the economy. Sure there will always be something theoretically to bring us down like other economies have experience, but america wont sell out its own people (Helicopter Ben to the Rescue) if so. I think value of homes are coming in for a soft landing, sure there are areas that will come down, thats why its always location. There are no guarantees, BUT since owning a home is real easy nowadays if you’ve been good and kept your credit clean, go for it, you may not have this chance in the future. On incomes as well, police officers make a 100,000 a year, you can get a 5 something on a 30 or 40 fix right now, even so the FEDs rates have been going up, these last 2 weeks the 30 year has come down. I was a real believer in this big bubble & there will be casualties of this, but i definately believe there were more winners than losers. We need both sides though to keep this even balance or for sure inflation will tear us apart, but right now, were setting up big trade contracts for other countries thats going to keep America busy at home.
March 2nd, 2006 16:31
thanks for the book!
March 2nd, 2006 16:43
America has built a reputation for itself that will be difficult to change on democracy and freedom, which makes this country strong. Its like the auto industry, the Japanese have figured out what is important to us in an automobile, they’ve built a reputation that has strong momentum, GM, Ford and other american autos will have a very difficult time taking that away, as long as Japanese keep building them strong. The american economy has a strong momentum in being the global economy now, when U.S. economy does good, so do the world.
March 2nd, 2006 17:09
Remember too, you can always rent, if your a casualty, may not own for a while, but so what, I dont even count a foreclosure if its 2 years old, they may change that guideline in the future, but thats another what if. WHAT IF THE BUBBLE BURST, well I guess america will eat rice & beans, but how since so many people own there home outright + many got fixed mortgages and you think our government is going to let that happen!?!? we will go to war to keep our quality of life here!!!!!
March 2nd, 2006 17:10
imspicoli,
I don’t think that inventory going down 40-60 homes in a day or two is enough ‘data’ to suggest that the inventory is going down. We were at about 13,800 homes on the market a mere 8 weeks ago. We have steadily been adding 20-60 homes per day the last month. Nothing goes up or down all the time. The trend is towards higher inventory.
That said, sounds like you have done your homework. Each situation is different. That is all that I ask of people…do some homework BEFORE you buy, and try to make it a financial, not emotional decision.
Thanks for reading my blog, and best of luck to you on your housing purchase.
SoCalMtgGuy
March 2nd, 2006 17:15
Why did the Japanese bubble burst?
answer: There not america, remember we dropped the bomb on them, i dont think we would be that friendly vice versa even up to this point in time
March 2nd, 2006 18:14
mtnrunner2 said: My entire foundation crew was illegal, and they were such hard workers, my husband and I were complementing them constantly. … Wake up, y’all, it’s a benefit to our economy to have a black market for workers.
That’s a pretty compelling argument. Looks like we should take another look at legalizing slavery, and stop bothering the sweat shop operators.
March 2nd, 2006 19:08
Hi SoCal,
Very true, even though the trend is cooling down, but I cant help it on my side since renting and owning in my case is very close for me. I went in on it with the sister and now I’m buying her out and we’re splitting the equity value of todays market. I’m doing a loan at 85% LTV, but since my credit is good/income too, I feel this wont be an easier time than now to get the financing since there are so many options + if you have parents that save, got good investments, family can help in trying times. I’ve never experienced a very bad economy and many, many people have’nt, but I feel secure with the free trade and other coutries opening up to our market, that things wont collapse inward. If america collapses, the world will feel it. U have to love the US dollar, any other country will take it faster than there own money. Its the universal money (its good everywhere) better than american express. Greenspan did say that things are different even though inverted yield curves spell out recession. Greenspan has been right on a lot of issues if you listen closely, even the .com bubble, he mentioned the speculative
March 2nd, 2006 20:52
Holy shit.
We’ve all been assuming that people will be shredded when their 5/1 ARMS convert or ARMS in general skyrocket, but look here:
http://mortgage-x.com/trends.htm
This clearly shows that a 5/1 ARM converting today will result ina DECREASE in monthly payment, and that ARMS have virtually always been a better deal, cheaper money, than FRMS over the last 22 YEARS.
Obviously the i/o’s and o/a’s could still wreak havoc, but shit…
March 2nd, 2006 21:51
That would mean the 5/1 ARM was done in 2001. Things didn’t really get cooking with I/O and lowering of rates until 2002 and 2003.
It doesn’t really matter that ARMs have been great over the past 22 years. We had HISTORICAL low interest rates during 2003 and part of 2004. Getting into an ARM at historical lows is not the best place to get in.
Besides, lots of people refinanced as rates hit their lows in 2003 and 2004. So I doubt that the 5/1 ARMs from 2001 are a very large percentage of the market. Those people should have a nice equity cushion if they didn’t ‘pull it all out’.
Again, my gripe has never been with ARMs per se. The problem is that pretty much every ARM I came across was INTEREST ONLY.
The BULK of the subprime market are 2/28 and 3/27 ARMs. I’m not too worried about the 5/1 ARMs from 2001 bursting any bubbles, or saving any bubbles. I/O didn’t get popular and widely used until 2002.
SoCalMtgGuy
March 2nd, 2006 22:21
When the percentage of “exotic” loans is reported, usually as a cautionary tale, traditional ARM’s are included in that percentage. If they aren’t of concern, fine. What is the percentage of strictly i/o’s?
March 2nd, 2006 22:25
And even at, as you say, historical low rates the 1 yr ARM seems to be running about 90 to 100 bps below the 30 yr FRM. Still cheap money.
March 2nd, 2006 22:48
foreclose_me: My foundation crew, all illegals, were paid $25/hour cash. I drove 30 min to the Taco Shop and bought them all lunch. Same deal when they did my driveway, which was a $25K job, including grading and concrete. They are paid well. When we hire day laborers, we pay them $11/hr. I don’t consider any of this slavery.
The point is, there must be a benefit to the economy, or Busch wouldn’t be in favor of promoting illegal citizens. I myself am a legal immigrant, from Europe. My family applied for a visa, etc., and it does seem unfair to let others come here so easily, without having to go through the legal channels. Of course, my dad came as a scientist and that made it easier. OT: I learned english at age 9, and was top of my class and am an excellent speller. I was in the spelling bee in elementary school, even though I spoke and wrote only german until age 9. I don’t understand why anyone who comes here would expect that we teach them in their language, or publish voting materials in their language. My parents learned english in school, every country teaches their kids english. So people who live here should speak english at least. It’s absurd to publish materials w/ english on one side, another language on the back. I think tolerance of cultures has morphed into enabling laziness. My grandfather taught himself english at the age of 84, when he moved in with us.
Inventory is so high now, sales are low. CA is down 20% in number of sales. I wonder how long these realtors can go without getting paid. At some point, they’ll have to say,”Hey, Ms. Seller, you need to lower your price by 10% so we can sell this house and all get paid.” How long will this take? Realtors are the big losers in the sitting inventory. Why aren’t they pushing for price reductions? Or are they?
March 2nd, 2006 23:18
“Why aren’t they pushing for price reductions?”
Because for the past 5+ years they said that RE only goes up! Kind of hard to change your tune at this point in the game.
SoCalMtgGuy
March 5th, 2006 23:40
Inventory here in Boston is getting much larger also. One of my local realtors was groaning about the crush of new condo’s coming onto the market now. All this is really before the spring market even gets here!
March 14th, 2006 21:30
We have a number of hardworking illegals working for us. Two have purchased homes in Bakersfield this past year. Another one is building a home in Mexico. We are in the HVAC industry in Santa Barbara and they make respectivly $23, $24 and $27 per hour. The first two get paid 60% in cash so no record only the 40% the government knows about The last one pays all taxes on his wages. Many Immigrants earn high wages more than $50,000 in construction if they are capable and can afford to purchase property.
January 16th, 2007 14:48
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September 12th, 2007 11:47
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October 10th, 2007 13:41
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