San Diego Mortgage and RE info
I want to take a moment and talk about some really good info that I think the San Diego market should be interested in. I’m sure many of you have seen the site that Rich Toscano has put together: www.piggington.com. Not only does Rich write write regular articles for the Voice of San Diego, but he has some excellent content on his website that monitors real estate in the San Diego area. After seeing the ‘premium content’ listed on his site for months and going “I’m not going to pay for that…” I decided to spend the price of a movie ticket or a drink at the bar and see what it was all about.
It is apparent that Rich not only had to pay DataQuick for access to it’s data, but I’m sure it took quite a bit of time to do the analysis and excellent graphs that he puts together.
For the San Diego readers out there…how would you like to see how actual zip codes performed on a year over year basis? Not only that, but how would you like to see how every zip code ranked? Rich has put this data together, and he even did separate rankings for single family homes versus condos. He did not let the ‘condo factor’ affect the rankings of certain zip codes that are highly influenced by the condo market.
Aside from ranking and graphing all of the zip codes, he does a monthly track of the credit markets where he tracks and graphs how mortgage rates performed during the month. He also uses the DataQuick information to create several graphs that track every aspect of the San Diego market. Things like median home price, MLS inventories, sales volume, zip code increases and declines for SFRs and condos, and months of inventory at current sales pace among other things.
I know that I have received quite a few e-mails asking for various data that I didn’t have at my fingertips. You would think some of the industry organizations would put this info together. They might put bits and pieces of it out there if it fits their agenda, but not in the same format each and every month as the way Rich does it. From what I can tell, Rich is not manipulating or spinning the data…there is no reason for him to do so. Like his website says “In God we Trust, Everybody Else Bring Data”. Rich brings data…
If I were buying a house in San Diego in the next few months, I would definitely pay the $8 a month to get this info. This info, with tools like ziprealty.com and zillow.com will make you a very informed real estate shopper. Those 3 tools go a long way to add some transparency to an industry that is relatively ‘closed’ behind the ‘Sandicor’ doors. Ziprealty now lets you track price reductions and days on market. Zillow lets you track pricing for individual housing among other features.
I am not affiliated with Rich and I am not getting paid for this. I am just passing this info along. I was pleasantly surprised at what I saw in the ‘premium content’, and I know that many of the readers are in the San Diego area. As much as I wish I could share some of the data with you, I’m not going to give away the content he pays for and works hard to produce. I feel it is worth $8 a month…especially if you are in the San Diego market. If you don’t think so, you can cancel anytime. Click here for more info.
The best I can do for you is point you towards this article that showed up in the San Diego Union Tribune. This article gives some basic data, as well as the stats for a few neighborhoods. The thing to take away is that prices of new homes are taking a dive that will impact the rest of the market.
“But, in the new-housing category, which included newly built homes as well as apartments converted to condos for sale, there was a $104,000 drop from $539,500 in December to $435,000 last month.
That dollar decline represented an all-time record change, based on DataQuick reports back to 1988; while the 19.4 percent decline was the second biggest after a 24 percent decline recorded in July 1997.
OOPS! Doesn’t look good for individuals that paid 540k for homes a few months ago. I’m guessing they can’t handle the 100k drop in prices as well as the builder can. Don’t forget that many of these people used jumbo I/O loans, option-ARM’s, neg-am’s, 80/20’s and other creative financing to get into their 550k “starter home”.
If you happen to be in Orange County, then you can check out this data (hopefully the link will work without having to login). Orange County is certainly not invincible either. It seems that every major subprime lender is headquartered there. There is no shortage of stated income, interest only, option-ARM, and combo loans in ‘The OC’.
Don’t forget that there is a TON of activity going on in the forums. There are almost 100 topics, 600 posts, and over 160 registered users. There are lots of very informative people in the forums as well. After writing 70+ posts, I feel like I am beating a dead horse sometimes, so please let me know what you want to hear about. I know the FB stories are always popular, but as things have been slower, there haven’t been as many ‘good’ stories to tell. Plus the fact that since things are slower, I’m taking this time to work on a ‘plan B’…if you know what I mean.
Thanks for stopping by…and I look forward to the comments and feedback!
SoCalMtgGuy
February 14th, 2006 05:03
With Property Shark, I was able to see what my new neighbors paid for their property, and they can see what I paid for mine. We have a row of near-identical 17 foot wide rowhouses. Let’s just say the price of housing seems to be a little out of hand.
The question is, will having all this information available to the public so easily, not just to the brokers and the tax assessors, affect the speed at which the real estate market corrects? As I say yesterday in a history of my generation’s bubble, which peaked in 1987, it took another seven or eight years to hit the market clearing price.
And how about the incentives of the players. Those holding or oweing mortgages would prefer a slower adjustment, no doubt. But those who make money on transactions would probably prefer a fast decline to a seven year freeze.
February 14th, 2006 05:47
I read the piggington site regularly, and have been a paying member since last year. I signed up for membership the first time I saw the site, because I was so impressed and wanted to read more. This guy is really knowledgeable about both the economy and SD real estate.
February 14th, 2006 08:50
“there was a $104,000 drop from $539,500 in December to $435,000 last month.”
That is a substantial drop for sure. Seems like san diego is the poster city for the housing bubble.
Seems like they exhausted the buyers and people are jumping on board trying to get out near the top. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out over there. I was born over there and have alot of family there. I know my aunt has been trying to sell a condo and they missed the top last summer and have had a hard time unloading it.
February 14th, 2006 09:04
Just remember, these “drops” are actually market shifts and sales of homes that are still realising 100, 300, 500% increases from their last sales price. There has been no pain yet.
February 14th, 2006 11:11
Hey Socal
I thought I would ask if you knew about this company:
Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (LEND)
I just heard their conference call and the stated they were no longer doing any stated income loans due to the risk and high defaults. Have you heard anything about this?
Thanks in advance.
Vic
February 14th, 2006 11:26
BB,
Familiar with the company…have some friends that work there, but I have not heard anything about any company ‘not doing’ stated income loans anymore.
I know that companies are tightening up on the income stated, and that rates have gone up…but I can’t believe the company ‘did away’ with stated income.
If you only did full-doc subprime loans in CA…I don’t think you would have much volume. Then again, I’m not in a position to see the finances of these companies…just the info I pick up out in the field and from other account execs.
SoCalMtgGuy
February 14th, 2006 11:45
SoCal,
Continue to love the site and forums! (Great idea to add forums by the way).
Just saw an article on the collapse of the NJ housing bubble in the 80s on nnjbubble.blogspot.com - this guy did some amazing research from articles in the NY Times during the 80s.
Full article available at: http://www.youdovoodoo.com/80sbubble.htm (the similarities in what RE agents and others said back than is like deja vu)
Would be fantastic if someone had the time and motivation to do something similar from LA Times… Could be another posting idea for you.
February 14th, 2006 12:51
I don’t understand Robert Cote’s contention that there hasn’t been any pain yet. If a house sold for $550,000 it stands to reason that there was a buyer as well as a seller.
The buyer is probably not too happy about his timing. He may console himself by saying that “he’s in it for the long term” but if he bought it with an “affordable product” he probably isn’t in it for the long term at all.
February 14th, 2006 12:57
everybody loves to blame the housing bubble bursting in the late 80’s early 90’s on defense spending cuts and here in socal their may be some truth to that but NJ???
the things people say now about buying property is the same things they said then, no more land, interest rates will never be this low agin, better buy before you are “priced out”…
thing is i am priced out right now and i think that makes me lucky
February 14th, 2006 13:14
I don’t understand Robert Cote’s contention that there hasn’t been any pain yet. If a house sold for $550,000 it stands to reason that there was a buyer as well as a seller.
No, read the entire comment. “Market shifts” means the nature of the selling houses is shifting back down to represent more of the modest housing stock. People don’t suffer when the $300k house sells for $500k even as the $600k house languishes on the market for $900k.
Pain doesn’t come from purchasing a house for $220k in 1995 and selling in 2006 for $1.2m in 2006 instead of selling for $1.5m in 2005. Pain comes when people have to bring their checkbook to the closing of their home sale.
Pain is when you are transfered and your former home in Prescott is offered at 80% of value and must still wait for the half dozen bank owned properties to sell first before it is even considered. You pay two mortgages and watch your equity evaporate.
Pain is finding a note in your mailbox that says your Miami condo HOA is quadrupling mothly fees to cost more than your mortgage because 20% of the units have not sold, 205 of the units are in default and insurance costs are up 180%.
Pain is the lot to the left sold to Circle-K for a minimart and the lot to the left for farmworker housing.
Pain is maxing out the creditcard to purchase bars for the windows.
Pain is telling your best friend that you really can’t buy his $76k motorhome for $22k.
Pain is not being able to stop at a neighborhood yard sale because you or they will be embarassed.
Pain is lighting a candle at St. Ignatius’ praying that someone answers your “2005 Vovlo XC-90 Take Over Payments” ad.
Pain is your 28 yo daughter showing up at the doorstep with two kids, an incomplete divorce procedure, and needing a check to walk away from her Fresno townhome.
Pain is… sorry, I’m ramblig. Enough?
February 14th, 2006 13:45
pain is running to 2 or 3 stores all over town trying to find saint joseph statues to bury in your front yard.
pain is watching your monthly nut increase while the asset it pays for goes down in value.
pain is commuting two hours each way for the privilege of paying for, well,…..your pain
pain is having expectations of a $100,000 profit, and losing $75,000.
pain is walking away from an upside down loan, and having the irs garnish your wages for the next 30 years.
stop me, please
February 14th, 2006 15:08
Pain is watching your neighbours scratch their heads as their car is repo’d in the middle of the night.
Pain is the face of people openning their mailboxes cringing.
Pain is the lawncare guy losing his jobs since people resort to cutting their own lawns.
Pain is Las Vegas in summer for people who can’t afford their air conditioning.
Pain is seen on the weekends as the Humvees sit in driveways while the old toyota is being used to do everything.
Pain is seen as the amount of trash people generate drops due to lower consumption on trash day.
Pain is the guy working at the granite countertop factory getting laid off.
Pain is seen every morning in the form of a swimming pool paid from a 2nd mortgage, and it’s upkeep.
Pain is driving around with no insurance or expired registration due to not being able to afford it.
Pain is shorter lines at Starbucks in the morning.
Pain is pretending to still be ontop at the golf club, even while drowning in debt (like that classic ad on tv).
…ok who’s next to add to the pain list….
February 14th, 2006 15:48
BB
What did LEND have to say on their earnings call? It looks like many sub-prime lenders are blowing up NFI, NLY, etc. Some unable to release earnings reports.
February 14th, 2006 15:52
Las Vegas pain; you keep your lawn green while others’ are brown while your kid wears his sister’s sneakers.
Los Angeles pain; Roy Lichenstien, “Oh my God, I forgot to accrue equity!”
Ventura pain; “So close to LA yet so far from its’ troubles.”
Santa Barbara pain; “But the other shack sold for more. My shack is nicer.”
Cambria [and Wrightwood] pain; “Everyplace else should have crashed first.”
San Diego pain; “Nice doesn’t go down.”
Boston pain; “Snow? Not at all, that is ambiance.”
NYC pain; “As goes the financials so goes NYC.”
SoCalMtgGuy, this is fun. I’m starting a thread just to collect these. Unless you object at my blog.
February 14th, 2006 16:10
Robert…
Check out the Forums….put your comment over there…and get the ball rolling!
SoCalMtgGuy
February 14th, 2006 16:38
On another board, I saw a reference to this article
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/atoz/article_989246.php
which I can’t crosscheck. So, take it with the obvious grain of salt.
The gist of it appears to be that there’s this guy named Gary Watts, who has an enviably good track record of predicting OC real estate prices. According to the article, he is reportedly talking of another 15% gain for OC real estate prices this year.
Can anybody confirm this?
Thanks much!
February 14th, 2006 16:56
Dm,
check out Ben’s blog…I think that topic was hammered pretty well over there the day that article was posted. Check the past 2-3 days of his archives and you will find it.
SoCalMtgGuy
February 14th, 2006 17:20
thanks Scmg!
February 14th, 2006 17:27
Pain is writing out our frustrations on this blog because we missed the housing boat and are far from a reasonably/realistically priced home (300k) :–(
boo hoo
February 14th, 2006 17:59
My father-in-law is reading his 1970s former-rent-house for the market in North County. I’ve tried to get him to sell it earlier, but he’s finally doing it now. Prices could drop 80% and he’ll still make a profit. Look for people like him to put the hurt on the flippers who’ll soon be underwater if they get in a race to the bottom to out-sell him.
February 15th, 2006 05:29
SoCalMtgGuy, it’s not your bailiwick, I know, but do you happen to know of any piggington.com analogues making comparable analysis available for other local markets? I’d pay $8/mo to be able to lean on this kind of data in the Boston area.
February 15th, 2006 12:19
“Prices could drop 80% and he’ll still make a profit. Look for people like him to put the hurt on the flippers who’ll soon be underwater if they get in a race to the bottom to out-sell him.”
I believe when this happens(and it will),that’s when we’ll see the real carnage begin.All it takes is one homeowner on a street to drop their price substantially to inflict real pain on the neighbors.The person with 400,000 + in equity and no debt has all the leverage………
February 15th, 2006 12:25
Since we are on the topic of pain, maybe a good theme song would be “Feel the Pain” by Dinosaur Jr. Love that song
February 16th, 2006 00:00
bidingtime…
send piggington an e-mail. I saw on his site that he would look at doing other areas if there was interest.
aguho…
check out the “pain is…” board in the forums.
SoCalMtgGuy
February 23rd, 2006 09:21
Do you have an rss feed I can subscribe to?