I’m back! …option ARMs , growing inventory, slower business, and more
Hello everybody! Many of you know my feelings on where I think things are headed as well that I have been working on my ‘plan B’. That said, my ‘plan B’ has worked out better than expected. I found an excellent opportunity in another industry. I will still be in sales in SoCal, just not in the mortgage industry. I will still be keeping my finger on the ‘pulse’ of things as I have several good friends that will keep me posted as new things happen. I have a LOT to learn with my new job, so the posts are going to be less frequent from me for the time being. I wish I could keep the posts coming every day, but blogging doesn’t pay the bills for me. I will be focusing on the new job and posting as I have good information. That said, I do have some good info below, so lets have a look at what is going on in the industry and some of the things I am seeing and hearing from others.
First off, things are much S-L-O-W-E-R in the mortgage business. I have met with several of my friends that are also account executives in the industry. One of them told me that only one person in their region ‘commissioned’ last month. For a territory that is used to doing 30-50 million per month, they did only 10 million. There was a time not too long ago, where the top rep in this territory was doing more than 10 million a month. I talked to 2 other reps where nobody in their regions hit their numbers. All but one of these reps is about to start looking elsewhere for work.
The mortgage industry, and specifically the subprime industry, has tried to implement the ‘outrun things with volume’ strategy. They kept rates low to stay competitive. The slashed profit per loan, and tried to drive volume. In the last year at the company I just left, we had 5 different comp plans. The ‘last’ comp plan was about ‘half’ of the first comp plan unless you were hitting the highest numbers which only a very few people were doing. To give you an idea, a rep used to make $4000 to $5000 for every million dollars worth of loans funded. Now, the typical rep is probably going to make $2000-$2500 for the same million dollars worth of loans funded. The problem is that the volume isn’t there for most people. I know reps there were doing 5-7 million per month consistently…and now they are barely doing 1.5 million. I know it is the ’slow’ time of the year to begin with, but I don’t see things picking up that much. Some of the reps that have been in the business for a while and that saved money, will be fine. Remember, most companies only had 3-5 reps for a region a few years ago. That grew to 15-25 reps as things were booming. The problem is that there isn’t the volume to pay that many reps the money they need to be paid to live. Look at my earlier example. 8-10 reps can all do ok when a territory is doing 30-50 million, not 10 million. (some companies will split a region into territories, that is why a territory will have less reps than a region).
That said, it isn’t stopping the companies from hiring people. I have had no less than 6-8 companies that found my resume online, want me to come work for them as an account executive. It doesn’t surprise me though, as there are not many barriers to entry in this industry. Since most account executive positions are 100% commission or have a very small draw plus commission, the companies aren’t really taking much risk by hiring a new person. They will usually throw a short term comp plan that pays very well for about 3 months until you transition to the regular comp plan. I think that the companies are looking for new people that will have relationships with big accounts they don’t know about or have relationships with. I have had another 15-20 companies that wanted me to be a loan officer for them. The funny thing is that when I ask them where they see things headed, they admit that things have been slow for a few months, but that they see things ‘taking off’ again in 60-90 days. I just don’t see a major increase in activity in the near future. You can’t have a 5-8 year bull-run in real estate, and NOT have things slow down…especially once people see prices coming down. Over 40% of the job growth in California has been in the real estate/mortgage/related fields industries the past 5 years. I’m not naive enough to think that RE can employ that many people in the long run.
Now lets take a look at my favorite loan…the option ARM. It seems that option ARMs are making up what seems to be a very large part of the business in SoCal. Part of this is due to the fact that it pays well, but I think it mostly deals with the fact that most people cannot afford property using ‘conventional’ financing, so the option ARM is the only way to get the payment low enough. I was talking to several other account executives that were saying the same thing. They are seeing some offices that are doing option ARMs for 80-90% of their business. I saw this trend a while ago…especially when they started offering the option ARM to people with FICO scores in the high 500’s and low 600’s. The option ARM started targeting more of a ’subprime’ borrower…but it wasn’t offered by your true subprime lenders.
Speaking of lowered standards. One major nationwide lender now added a 3-month bank statement program to their arsenal. Not too long ago, most banks wanted 24 months of bank statements, but some would take 12 months. Then most banks added what was called ‘lite-doc’ or 6-month bank statements. This means the borrower shows their last 6 months of bank statements to ‘verify’ their income. Now we have a 3 month program?!?!? I don’t know the specifics with regards to LTV, FICO scores, etc. but come on. As you can see, this is just another ‘lowering of standards’ to try and get a few more people who can qualify for a loan. The problem is that there isn’t much further you can go. Whats next, the 1 month bank statement program?!?!? Doesn’t it sound a little crazy to give somebody a 30 year loan based on only a 3 month history?!?!?
Lets not forget those inventory numbers. I take off for a few days, and the San Diego inventory numbers jump from the low 17,000’s to 17,685 per ziprealty.com. It is pretty safe to say that inventories are steadily increasing. Too bad that the sales transactions are not keeping pace.
That is about all for now. I’ll be posting periodically as I have good information or analysis to share with you. I have a LOT to learn with my new job and I am VERY excited about it!! I will be spending most of my time working on that, as it pays the bills quite a bit better than the blog 
I suggest making the FORUMS a regular stop each day. There are now over 300 members, 2200 posts, and 340 topics to read about. There are some very articulate and informative people in the forums.
To everybody who has sent e-mails the past week to 10 days….sorry it took so long to get back to you. I hope this post helps to explain things a bit better. Thanks again to everybody for all of the support. I’ll still be around…and I’m looking forward to watching this whole thing unfold.
I look forward to the comments and feedback!
SoCalMtgGuy
March 13th, 2006 03:45
Good luck with the new job! BTW an article on a White House housing adviser who is a FB. HousingPanic is featuring it, but I think it is appropo to your site.
http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/apps/policenews/press/DisplayInfo.cfm?ItemID=2378
March 13th, 2006 05:10
Now you’ll probably have to change your nic ; ). Congratulations on working out Plan B, I wish you the very best in your new venture.
March 13th, 2006 05:16
Have fun with the new job!
March 13th, 2006 06:09
Best of wishes on the new job. Keep us posted with whats going on in the lending business.
March 13th, 2006 06:50
Just curious - what industry are you in? Of course you must be vague to preserve anonymity.
SoCal - have you considered writing a book, magazine article, newspaper article, etc. about the mortgage industry? Now that you’ve left your employer, you don’t need to remain anonymous. You could get paid for this, and help people out. That is, if your current employer wouldn’t be worried about you doing an employer exposure.
Thanks for the update. I wondered what was happening in lending these days.
March 13th, 2006 07:48
so cal,
best of luck in the new job, your writings have been an eye opener for so many that are out of the industry. as i mentioned to you last month, we’ll be in touch as soon as our “plan b” is up and running.
bo
March 13th, 2006 09:24
bla bla bla, i think we are due for a correction but the bottom line here in Anaheim, a frind rents a house that was put up for sale, 2 offers in 3 days.
this place needs 50K invested just to get the plumbing fixed and get rid of the rats, best offer was 565K.
i’ve been looking like a real fool for the last 2 years screaming bubble while the herd keeps pulling money out of their homes and living the good life!
March 13th, 2006 12:41
“i’ve been looking like a real fool for the last 2 years screaming bubble while the herd keeps pulling money out of their homes and living the good life!”
I personally know 2 families ‘living the good life’ all equity funded for last 3-4 years. One has an adjusting ARM coming soon and just cant find someone to refinance as he has gotten into some seriouse debt. He is considering selling his toys to start a rainy day fund. You call that living the good life??? Get a grip.
March 13th, 2006 13:37
Comment by Rainman18
2006-03-11 15:16:42
KBTC interrupts this blog to bring you the following educational program.
Howdy boys and girls! Guess who’s back?! It’s me! Your old pal Bubbles the Clown with another fun filled show! On our last episode, we all sang a fun song about the Flippers! It was zany fun wasn’t it! I hope you tuned in!!! And thanks for all your fun comments, especially to ‘cereal’ who came up with a dandy second verse! Yea!
On today’s episode we’re gonna talk about The Mortgage Lenders! Do you know who The Mortgage Lenders are? You got it! They’re the folks who would loan over a half million dollars to hairdressers making $20,000 a year so they could buy one bedroom condos. Yikes! And they work at such fun sounding places too, like ‘The Lending Tree’. Do you know what a Lending Tree is kids? That’s right! That’s the tree where all your Mommies and Daddies are gonna hang from after they realize that they’re ruined! Oops! And The Mortgage Lenders are the wacky bunch that gave them the rope to do it. Silly Lenders! Would you like to hear a song Bubbles wrote about The Mortgage Lenders? Yea! Okay here we go! Sing along kids!
“Ya Burn and Surely”
Give us any chance, we’ll take it.
Can’t afford a loan? We’ll fake it.
Just wait until your rate balloons.
Screwin’ ya our way.
Nice to see that you’ve come back now.
Home loans are re-fi crack now.
Your many purchase dreams come true.
Screwin’ ya our way.
That house you shouldn’t buy.
Did you say the word affordable?
You’ve got a pulse, lucky us!
We’re gonna do it!
On the mark, in pen, just sign now,
Grab your ankles, soon you’ll know how.
We’re gonna hear your screams next June.
You’re gonna lose it! Someday, yes someday.
We know it seems real cruel.
Can’t refuse it, dumb play, you dumb prey.
Lent to extremes, you fool…
You see, you’re screwed!
Did you like that song boys and girls? Hurray! What’s that? What does ‘grab your ankles’ mean? Well kids, that’s what adults do when something really, really bad is about to happen! It reminds Bubbles of the time when the zany benefit show he did at the state prison went horribly wrong. Who could have guessed the inmates would get so mad about a gag water-squirting flower? Yikes! And you thought Bubbles walked funny ‘cuz of these big floppy shoes!
Okay kids, that’s all the fun we have time for today! Now put away that sad face! Bubbles will see you all next time with another fun filled show abuot his best friends The Realtors…Yipee! Until then remember: Bubbles the Clown is FUN! Housing bubbles are icky!
A rainman18production 2006 copyright
BTC#2
Reply to this comment
Comment by amber
2006-03-11 15:54:01
Rainman, enough already, laughing so hard I can’t breathe! The talent and expertise on this blog never ceases to amaze me. Can’t wait until your next production!!
Reply to this comment
Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-03-11 16:10:44
RainMan18,
I am glad you copyrighted it. It deserves to be sent to as many of these types of blogs that you can muster up. Fun FUN!
Reply to this comment
Comment by mad_tiger
2006-03-11 16:27:27
LOL. Gilligan’s Island, Laverne and Shirley…..you’re half-way to an album. Next perhaps The Beverly Hillbillies (”millionaire”, “black gold”, “texas tea”, “Californy is the place you ought to be”)?
Reply to this comment
Comment by athena
2006-03-11 18:49:30
bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! Again! Again! Do this on my blog!!! bahahahahaahahahaComment by Rainman18
2006-03-11 15:16:42
KBTC interrupts this blog to bring you the following educational program.
Howdy boys and girls! Guess who’s back?! It’s me! Your old pal Bubbles the Clown with another fun filled show! On our last episode, we all sang a fun song about the Flippers! It was zany fun wasn’t it! I hope you tuned in!!! And thanks for all your fun comments, especially to ‘cereal’ who came up with a dandy second verse! Yea!
On today’s episode we’re gonna talk about The Mortgage Lenders! Do you know who The Mortgage Lenders are? You got it! They’re the folks who would loan over a half million dollars to hairdressers making $20,000 a year so they could buy one bedroom condos. Yikes! And they work at such fun sounding places too, like ‘The Lending Tree’. Do you know what a Lending Tree is kids? That’s right! That’s the tree where all your Mommies and Daddies are gonna hang from after they realize that they’re ruined! Oops! And The Mortgage Lenders are the wacky bunch that gave them the rope to do it. Silly Lenders! Would you like to hear a song Bubbles wrote about The Mortgage Lenders? Yea! Okay here we go! Sing along kids!
“Ya Burn and Surely”
Give us any chance, we’ll take it.
Can’t afford a loan? We’ll fake it.
Just wait until your rate balloons.
Screwin’ ya our way.
Nice to see that you’ve come back now.
Home loans are re-fi crack now.
Your many purchase dreams come true.
Screwin’ ya our way.
That house you shouldn’t buy.
Did you say the word affordable?
You’ve got a pulse, lucky us!
We’re gonna do it!
On the mark, in pen, just sign now,
Grab your ankles, soon you’ll know how.
We’re gonna hear your screams next June.
You’re gonna lose it! Someday, yes someday.
We know it seems real cruel.
Can’t refuse it, dumb play, you dumb prey.
Lent to extremes, you fool…
You see, you’re screwed!
Did you like that song boys and girls? Hurray! What’s that? What does ‘grab your ankles’ mean? Well kids, that’s what adults do when something really, really bad is about to happen! It reminds Bubbles of the time when the zany benefit show he did at the state prison went horribly wrong. Who could have guessed the inmates would get so mad about a gag water-squirting flower? Yikes! And you thought Bubbles walked funny ‘cuz of these big floppy shoes!
Okay kids, that’s all the fun we have time for today! Now put away that sad face! Bubbles will see you all next time with another fun filled show abuot his best friends The Realtors…Yipee! Until then remember: Bubbles the Clown is FUN! Housing bubbles are icky!
A rainman18production 2006 copyright
BTC#2
Reply to this comment
Comment by amber
2006-03-11 15:54:01
Rainman, enough already, laughing so hard I can’t breathe! The talent and expertise on this blog never ceases to amaze me. Can’t wait until your next production!!
Reply to this comment
Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-03-11 16:10:44
RainMan18,
I am glad you copyrighted it. It deserves to be sent to as many of these types of blogs that you can muster up. Fun FUN!
Reply to this comment
Comment by mad_tiger
2006-03-11 16:27:27
LOL. Gilligan’s Island, Laverne and Shirley…..you’re half-way to an album. Next perhaps The Beverly Hillbillies (”millionaire”, “black gold”, “texas tea”, “Californy is the place you ought to be”)?
Reply to this comment
Comment by athena
2006-03-11 18:49:30
bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! Again! Again! Do this on my blog!!! bahahahahaahahaha
March 13th, 2006 13:38
Hey boys and girls! It’s your old pal Bubbles the Clown! For today’s show I’ve written a song for all the Flippers out there. You know what a Flipper is don’t you? That’s right, they were waiters a couple of years ago that threw caution to the wind and bought more homes and condos than all of my ex-wives put together with my alimony checks. Which is why Bubbles has to work on this show so he doesn’t violate mean Mr. Judgie’s court order. You wouldn’t want to see Bubbles in jail would you kids? Good! Okay here we go…sing along!
“Flipagain’s Isle”
Just sit right back and you’ll hear a tale,
a tale that’ll make you sick.
It started back when everyone,
was buying homes to flip.
It started out okay you see,
the Flippers brave and sure.
Five condos they would buy one day,
their riches were assured, their riches were assured.
The market started getting rough,
they could not sell at cost.
If not for the folly of the greedy fools,
Their cash would not be lost, their cash would not be lost.
The price hit ground near the floor and yes,
they choked on their own bile.
With Flipagain, and the Lenders too,
The Realtors, and their lies.
The Groovy Cars, the Plasma Screens and the Get Rich Dreams,
Here on Flipagain’s Isle!
Did you enjoy that boys and girls? Yea! Would you like to visit Flipagain’s Isle someday? I wonder if they’ll make it off that island ok!
Allrighty kids, Bubbles has to go now and see Doctor Dan about his “procedure”! Can you say triple-bypass! Yikes!
See ya next time!
And remember: Bubbles the Clown is Fun! Housing bubbles are icky.
A rainman18production 2006
March 13th, 2006 13:41
We’re running about 20 minutes late for our landing in San Diego. We apologize for the delay but there are currently massive headwinds for all flights incoming to the San Diego area due to the deflation of the housing bubble. There will also be some chop from high winds escaping the massive high-pressure sales zone. This turbulence is only made worse as the hot air spewed out of the mouths of realtors meets the cold, harsh wind of reality. That and the major draft differential on the freeways as 5 and 15 North are packed with cars, while the Southbound lanes — towards San Diego — are entirely unoccupied.
If you look out of the left side of the plane as we approach the airport you can see the downtown area of San Diego. Despite appearances, that is NOT a fungus growing on the city. Those are merely “For Sale”, “For Rent”, and “Open House” signs. Once our aircraft gets low enough you will be able to make out the tattered remains of the giant sign advertising “Luxury Downtown Condos, from the mid $600,000s”. Yes, that’s right folks, even though the sign is now quite faded, you can still make out the price that is three times the current value of a downtown condo! It is a shame the building it was on was never completed either, a bit of an eyesore, what with the first five stories mostly complete and the upper portion mostly a skeleton… but investors won’t touch this area anymore, and construction companies, from owners to workmen, refer to San Diego as “San Die-gone”. Incidentally, with it’s easy street access from the abandoned scaffolding, the exposed tenth floor of this particular building is commonly known as “Speculator’s Leap”. Someone should probably board that up, but then again… naaaaah….
To the right of the aircraft you’ll be able to see Ditech Park, home of the San Diego Padres. Though it won’t be called Ditech Park for much longer, as the name will be auctioned off in the bankruptcy proceedings for the now defunct company. Real estate does happen to be the focus of one remaining growing San Diego industry however… prosecuting criminal real estate and mortgage fraud that is! Starving construction companies are vying desparately for state money to build the new prisons that are going to be needed for these people. Hmmm, I guess they really are going to be set for life…
Finally, please do not be alarmed by the whining sound which will increase in volume as we descend. This is not, I repeat, NOT a mechanical problem. It is merely the wailing of thousands of condo owners in their own private purgatory. They wish to leave, but they owe far more than they can get for the space between their four concrete walls. Ironically, every time one of them does give up the ghost and just make a runner for it, leaving an empty foreclosed condo, it lowers the value of their property, but actually raises their homeowner’s association fees. If the association can even collect them, that is. The worn carpet and burned out bulbs in the lobbies of most of these buildings is a testament to that!
Well ladies and gentlemen, thank for flying with us today, we know you have a choice when you travel (though not when you fly as Southwest is the only remaining carrier still serving the San Diego area…) Looking about the cabin you can see that, as usual, the incoming flight to San Diego is mostly empty. However our outbound flight, also as usual, will be full (and impatient), so please check to make sure you have all your belongings and we thank you for being ready to exit the plane quickly…
… so I can get the hell out of this Godforsaken city. Man, nice weather, but everyone here is just so depressed you know. Used to be a fun place, but downtown is dead now, dead. No one feels like partying and I guess there isn’t any money left to party with now that the funny money dried up. But hey, did I tell you what my friend’s brother’s Uncle’s former roommate made a bundle of money investing in? I lost my entire IRA/401K in the dot-com thing and my wife and I had to declare bankruptcy last year after our two I/O ARMs expired and adjusted up… can you believe that bad luck?! Anyways this should be able to make everything back… and more! It seems he….
Oh crap, this thing still on? It is? Godam~click
March 13th, 2006 13:42
I can’t take credit for writing these - just sharing them from Ben’s I was laughing so hard my stomach is hurting.
March 14th, 2006 07:27
So Cal,
Good luck to you on Plan B. Thanks for an excellent site. Hope you write a book.
March 14th, 2006 09:52
So Cal - wishing you luck in your new job. You are very talented, and I know you will do well. Keep feeding us good info and making us laugh
May the bears be out in force!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
March 16th, 2006 09:11
SoCal:
Good luck in your new position in a new business. You are very smart to do this early. Many people will hang on too long and loose everything; their jobs, marriages, homes. For those who are not familiar, the mortgage business has very big and long cycles, up and down. If this one is like the last one (and has the potential to be worse), most people in it today will be gone. They will not be able to make a living. In many ways I welcome this because it will flush out the incompetant, unskilled, opportunistic, criminal, and bad people who do much harm to borrowers.
So, SoCal, don’t turn back, close this site so that you can concentrate your efforts in your new job/business/industry. As for me, I am too old and been in it too long to do something else, and I am prepared to suffer for several years with no income, just as I did in the 80s and 90s.
March 17th, 2006 15:02
So, Sensible Lender - you sound like an honest trustworthy type, why not take over where SoCalMtgGuy might be leaving off?
March 17th, 2006 23:03
SoCal,
Best of luck in your new career and thank you very much for all the time you have put into this blog. It has been an extremely helpful resource for many of us and a fun place to spend our time too!
March 17th, 2006 23:06
Need 2 Leave,
Who wrote those songs? They are very well done. I actually sang each one to myself, laughing all the way through. Whoever wrote them got all the rythems right on target–nothing awkward. I could hear all the original music to these tv themes come flooding back when I sang these lyrics. Bravo!
March 19th, 2006 18:31
Rainman18 wrote the songs. I saw them on Ben’s blog. THey are great. Have asked him (or her) for more.
March 20th, 2006 15:20
The banks may already be dropping out:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060317:MTFH63189_2006-03-17_17-29-17_N17274725&symbol=DRL.N&rpc=44
March 27th, 2006 14:14
Hey Socal:
How about doing one post a week to keep things current??
March 28th, 2006 07:50
Bubble Butt,
Look for one here soon. I have some good stories and info. I have just been VERY busy with the new job.
Thanks for the patience and understanding!
SoCalMtgGuy
March 29th, 2006 16:52
SoCal. I would be happy to help with this site. I would have some time for that. Let me know.
November 28th, 2006 13:01
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September 14th, 2007 17:06
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September 15th, 2007 14:37
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September 18th, 2007 03:23
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November 26th, 2007 13:30
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November 28th, 2007 05:40
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December 5th, 2007 10:23
Привет всем, млин тут комп не давно сломался и остался я без компа и инета аж на целых 5 дней! Епт такой тошняк был пока не починил, ведь есть все таки зависимость от компьютора как ни крути. Помню раньше не было и не надо )). А еще игры это вообще жесть затягивает. Не давно видел объявление на ряду с лечением табакокурения, алкогализма, в третей строчки было лечение от ИГРОМАНИИ. Во как! Докатились!
Зависимость или свобода конечно все зависит от нас.
March 15th, 2008 18:07
April 16th, 2008 01:57
180
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