Here is a quote I like, “I have noticed that the people who come…

Why are sales decreasing but the median price of a home continues to increase? Any thoughts?

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HousingPanic, a particularly vitriolic BubbleBlog — which is saying something — asks:

Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices?

Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings. Notwithstanding the idiotic economic analysis, which is really no worse than the static-market fallacies paraded as profundities in the pages of the Arizona Republic, these sites — and not just HousingPanic — are infested with a cult-like fever to inflict suffering — at second hand, to be sure — on people who are in fact guilty of nothing except failing to have drunk the BubbleBlogger KoolAde.

That’s all one. I don’t care. The whole of the last century was dominated by the bad behavior of viciously angry wretches, but look where it got them. The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish. You will know and I will know and in the secret chambers of their hearts they will know they were wrong all along. But as long as you don’t hold your breath waiting for that contrite admission of error, you should be fine.

Here’s where I do start to care. Whenever the subject of Phoenix comes up in a BubbleBlog, the assembled Brown Shirts pile on, for whatever reason. This is their perfect right — even though I think they’re wrong. I love this place. I came here for three months in 1988, and I could not wait to get back. The first time I set foot here, on March 13, 1988, I knew I was home. We moved here for good on April 1, 1991, and I cannot imagine living happily anywhere else. Our relocation page is my extended love letter to the Phoenix area, warts and all. I’ve been writing lovingly about this place since the day I got here, and I’ll keep it up at least until the day before I die here.

Which brings me back to HousingPanic’s question. We keep our own home sales price statistics, so we have no doubt that values are down from their high in December. How much? Right now, about 4%. Could they go lower? Certainly. Will they drop by the huge amounts HousingPanic and his flying monkeys seem to yearn for? This seems very unlikely.

What seems much more likely is that Phoenix will recover from the hangover of last year’s buying binge and get back to a steady rate of growth — historically 6% a year. The reason this should happen is very simple: Population growth.

Metropolitan Phoenix is a unique real estate market. While other cities experience static — or even negative — population change, The Valley of the Sun routinely adds 100,000 new residents every year. There is no reason to think this will stop — not now and not soon. The carrying capacity of Greater Phoenix is eight million souls, about 266% our present population. We will hit that number — but not until 2040 or after.

A significant proportion of those people will want to live indoors, which evidently is such a flimsy idea that it cannot penetrate the skull of a BubbleBlogger. Ah, well, it takes all kinds — although the lord alone knows why it should.

http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/BloodhoundBlog/

This will definitely help the bubble POP!

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/bcreg/2006/20060929/attachment1.pdf

:-)

I can’t wait ’til all the homes in escrow TODAY will fall out of escrow this month!!!

hhahahha

Your four points are excellent! You should have been a professor! (I mean, if you weren’t so busy wasting what’s left of the inheritance you’ve been living off of all these years on investment properties IN BUFFALO!)

You’re right. I hide behind anonymity. That’s all about to change. Are you ready: L.A. Bob. Wow, it feels good to bravely shed my anonymity like you did! Thanks for showing me the way.

Sorry, I didn’t realize your racism, stupidity and monumental acts of denial were “ironic” — now that I’ve been alerted to your keen sense of wit and sarcasm, I’ll have to watch for the nuances in your future posts so I don’t make the same mistake again.

And finally, as for “reveling in the bad fortune of others” — you are wrong. It’s not others, just “other” — and you’re it pal.

Sincerely,
Yeesh.

P.S. — Of course I’m a trained monkey, that’s why you used the racial slur “macaca” against me, isn’t it?

Haha. You made my point for me! Let’s see..

1) Screeching blather
2) Hiding behind anonymity
3) Oblivious to irony
4) Reveling in the bad fortune of others

You are truly a trained monkey, sticking to the script. ha.

why would you use a racially charge word like “macacas” given what’s going on in virginia? that is even more offensive than your investment views. also, if you’re going to use a big word like schadenfreude, at least look it up so you can use it correctly next time.

and finally, give it up, dude. the clock is ticking toward your financial ruin. i can’t wait till something goes wrong with the bathroom of one of your buffalo slums and you have to start making that relaxing seattle-to-buffalo commute on a monthly basis. did you really sit down one day and say to youself: how can i become financially secure? i know, i’ll buy a few dives in a run-down rust belt city more than 2,000 miles away!

you are going to be one unsympathetic flameout.

I’d like to get your take on this pair of articles in Today’s Seattle times. The first points out that the Puget Sound market may be proving more stable than others due to the lower than average % of speculative flipping (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2003281771_flipping01.html).

Also, in this Q&A column, the business columnist downplays the impact of teaser loans on the Puget Sound market in short term (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2003281774_homeforum01.html). I trust your balanced views on bubble related issues (unlike many of the screaming macacas who main objective is the schadenfreude of those who have made bad decisions.

Seattle Eric