Car wrecks and the housing bubble?!?!?
I know, I know…people want me to post more often. Well, I hope to post more frequently when I stop ‘drinking from a fire hose’ with my new job. That said, things are going well with the new job…and things are starting to fall ‘in line’ with what I thought would happen with this bubble. I still feel like I am beating a dead horse. This bubble should NOT be a surprise to anybody.
Look at it this way: if you give a 16 year old kid the keys to a new Porsche Twin Turbo, what are the odds that he will ‘over extend’ the speed limit a little bit? How cool will he look while he cruises past everybody by barely pressing his right foot? How will the novice handle that car when he is no longer on the perfect straight road and encounters the first curves and bumps in the road? Will our novice panic…what will they do? How will our ‘novice’ handle the car with little to no real experience in a vehicle like this? What are the odds that the novice driver crashes that car? Sure, I know that not every 16 year old that gets the keys to a fast car ends up wrecking it…but it shouldn’t come as ANY surprise to anybody when it DOES happen. (as I was typing this, there was a news story about a teenage driver that lost control of his Mercedes Benz on the 56 freeway and launched 100ft down an embankment through a fence and into a residential yard.)
The same thing applies to this ‘liquidity bubble’ that manifested itself in the housing market by way of the mortgage business. You have a bunch of financial ‘novices’ getting mortgages that allow them to ‘over extend’ a little bit so they can get into a house or condo (interest only, neg-am, option-ARM, stated loans, etc.). Many of these people were real ‘cool’ as their house shot up in value with little to no effort on their part. Then there were a few bumps in that ‘perfect’ road to riches that started popping up. Just like no road stays straight forever, nothing appreciates in a straight line like real estate has the past 5-9 years depending on where you live.
Just look at the numbers coming out of Orange County today. You can check out the numbers for yourself, but just notice that sales are way down from last year, and that inventories are up pretty much across the board (not on the chart). Note: don’t let the 22% down payment figure fool you. DataQuick doesn’t know if the 20% down payments were cash, equity from another house, or a 2nd mortgage. With the proliferation of 100% or 80/20, 80/10/10 financing, it is easy for me to speak from experience and surmise that the average ‘homeowner’ is not putting down 22% in cash, but rather using piggyback second mortgages. It is harder to track Orange County on ziprealty.com than it is San Diego because it lumps OC and LA together. But you can look at San Diego and see that they are about to go over 19,000 properties on the market. Just remember, when everybody was ‘cruising’ to easy riches, there were 2900-4000 properties on the market.
So, rising inventories is the first ‘bump in the road’ that people are experiencing. This doesn’t really show up on most peoples radar screen. Again, most of these people are novices and have very little knowledge of the real estate industry or the mortgage that is driving their real estate riches. Even if people know that their ARM will adjust, or that they can’t make the minimum payment on their option-ARM forever, they have no idea the ramifications of these decisions in a market that doesn’t always go up.
Here is a perfect example of the nonsense that illustrates why there is a bubble and why prices HAVE to come down.
—————
List Price: $469,000 - $469,000
ZipRealty will give you up to $2,814 cash back.*
Bedrooms: 1
Full Baths: 1
Partial Baths: 0
Square Feet: 828
Lot Size: N/A
Year Built: 2005
Listing Date: 03/17/06
On Market: 33 days
Type: CONDO/TH
Status: ACTIVE
MLS #: 066024054
Description
Perfect opportunity for an investor! This stunning unit is rented at $1600 per mo. Until jan. Of 2007. Some of the features include 11 foot ceilings, beautiful upgraded hardwood flooring, stainless steel appliances, upgraded granite counter tops, and more! You must see to appreciate this amazing unit!
HOA Dues: $312
——————
Let’s look at some numbers here on this “Perfect opportunity”. Lets say a ‘genius’ investor wheels and deals and gets a ’steal’ on this property at $450,000. Lets say they have $90,000 for the 20% down. Their mortgage payment on a $360,000 loan with a 6.25% 30 year fixed will be $2,216 per month. Throw in another $375 per month in property taxes (this is a low estimate using 1% of the purchase price), and $312 for HOA, and you are looking at a grand total of $2903 per month. I know, I know…you could put less money down and get an I/O or option-ARM mortgage and lower the monthly payment. This MIGHT get you to break even in the short run, but that is about it.
SO, you spent $90k for the ‘privilege’ to lose $1303 per month (yes, I know I’m not figuring in the tax picture…but I’m also low balling taxes and not adding in insurance). If you don’t see a problem with this ‘investment’ then I think your math and economics teachers did you a real disservice. See my post titled A population bankrupt in math.
See what I’m talking about?!?!? I have about had it with stupid people meddling around in the financial/mortgage industries. The sad thing is that somebody will probably be convinced this is a ‘great’ opportunity. They will crunch the numbers using a low ‘teaser’ payment that is interest-only or an option-ARM. I don’t see how anybody with a brain and/or any integrity could say something as stupid as ‘Perfect opportunity…’. Oh that’s right…it IS a 100% commission business. Do or say whatever is necessary to ‘close the deal’….right???
Lets get back to our ‘road’ so to speak. We are experiencing the increasing inventories at this time. The next step will be the eventual decline in prices. This will happen when people have to sell. People don’t seem to have a problem with ‘making’ 50-100k in equity when a property down the street sold for more. How do you think they will handle it when it goes the other way? What happens when the people that bought many years ago decide to sell and move away. They don’t need top dollar because they bought their 700k home for 150k a long time ago. They can ‘take’ 550-600k and be happy. What happens to the comps when houses start selling for less? I don’t know how the banks will handle it, we have never had 100% financing and this much ‘funny money’ sloshing around in such a short period of time. What is going to happen when you have thousands and thousands of people upside down on their homes? What is going to happen when the interest only period ends, the ARM adjusts, or the neg-am option ARM recasts…and the person cannot refi because the latest comps are less than what they currently owe?
Here is my prediction: I think San Diego will see 1000+ condos on the market in downtown, and 30,000+ properties on the San Diego MLS by then end of 2007. The only thing that will keep those numbers from happening is some rather large reductions in prices.
We will see how close my predictions come. Be patient people…this thing is going to get REAL interesting in 2007 and take YEARS to really play out. Save money, be patient, and be informed.
Here are a few quick things I wanted to put out there for you…
I was in a shopping center last week running some errands. All of a sudden I heard somebody calling my name. I turned around and recognized the face, but I could not immediately place the name. It was one of the loan officers from one of my old broker shops. Apparently things were getting pretty slow, and the owners were trying to ’steal’ loans and close them themselves to get paid. The days of there being ’so much business I can throw a few loans to the newer people’ are over. That is not the funny part, the funny part is that this loan officer was back to running two cell-phone kiosks at the local shopping centers. I know people have joked before about what all these loan officers are going to do when things slowdown, well, I guess this is how one LO was going to handle things. They also told me that of the 20+ loans they had in their pipeline, they were only able to get 2-3 to actually fund. They got into the business for the ‘big money’, but were a tad late to the party along with thousands and thousands of others. “Would you like an option-ARM or interest only?” is now replaced with “Do you want a bluetooth headset with that???”.
But don’t despair, Accredited Home Lenders doesn’t see things going the other way. They just dropped a cool million dollars for a 3-day ’sales rally’ in San Diego. They flew in every sales rep in the company, put them up in the Manchester Hyatt downtown, gave them all a $100 pre-paid ‘credit card’, and had entertainment planned each night at such venues as the House of Blues. I have a few friends that work for them in several areas of the country. They called to let me know they would be in town. They pretty much feel the same way I do about things, but they are sticking things out for a while longer. They told me of the ‘million dollar’ tab for the 3-day event, as well as some of the rah-rah-rah that was being used to pump everybody up, and keep them motivated. I’d like to see the 5 year reunion of this event, and see how many of the same people are still around. The loose credit has to tighten up and so will the entire mortgage industry when that happens. You can only lend money to people with spotty credit at high LTV/CLTV’s when the markets are rising. It is going to be interesting so see how the industry copes with the eventual price drops as inventory keeps increasing at a rapid pace. Just remember, 2007 is the year when a majority of the 2 trillion dollars of adjustable rate mortgages do their thing…adjust!
So, there you have it for now. I will do my best to post more frequently.
I look forward to the comments and feedback.
SoCalMtgGuy
April 19th, 2006 23:09
Glad you’re still kicking amigo
Good to hear from you again - and it’s good to know you’ve switched to a career with lots of activity!
April 19th, 2006 23:15
Thanks Idaho_Spud!
It is great to be in a job in a growing industry that is NOT dependent on real estate or mortgage one iota.
I’ll have another post soon enough about some of the interactions I have had in my new job. As you can imagine, people ask, “what were you doing before”…
Thanks again for your patience!!!
SoCalMtgGuy
April 19th, 2006 23:26
SoCalMtgGuy,
Another gem, well worth the wait. I have a lot of friends and family in the Mortgage business. A few work for the big houses and the others are brokers. Easter was interesting…for the first time in years, none of them wanted to talk about work. Didn’t get the usual stories of “investment properties” they were looking at or the sales pitch for me to pull a HELOC and buy another place. The room got real quiet when I shared the fact that I recently sold my house and haved moved into a rental. It was like they saw a ghost.
Ocpete
April 19th, 2006 23:28
SoCal - glad to see you back. Your posts will keep this going as a great site.
April 20th, 2006 04:56
inventory here in orlando is up almost 500% YOY and they are STILL building out at a rapid pace!!!!
April 20th, 2006 05:11
Your writing style would keep me up all night reading that book…Have you thought of publishing your stories? Or writing a column?
April 20th, 2006 08:33
SoCal,
Great to have you back.
The Smart money has already left RE. The sheeple pool is depleting fast. Also, Hedge funds are beginningto bet against the housing market. Ben Bernake has to engineer another bubble or we’re all screwed
SV Geek.
April 20th, 2006 08:45
You left out one thing in the rent-vs-buy calculation: The opportunity cost of the down payment. Which in this case is substantial.
You can get 4.25-4.5% in a money market these days, and in the immediate term this rate will only go up while the Fed raises rates. Call it 3.25% after taxes.
$90K times .0325 divided by 12 = about $250/month.
Or use the long-term 10% return of the stock market. After taxes this would be about 8%, assuming the 15% long-term gain and dividend rate plus state taxes. On $90K that gives you $600/month.
Actually if you’re using pretax dollars, I should use pretax dollars too. Anyway you’re really talking $1700-2000 per month.
April 20th, 2006 09:10
At a minimum, you will hear a huge “sucking sound” of money getting sucked out of the economy as 2 Trillion in mortgages adjust upward, and that money gets funneled over to the pockets of various banks and overseas investors.
April 20th, 2006 09:22
When will the FEDS ever admit that things are really, really getting bad. All they ever do is re-adjust the poor actual numbers that are published to the public, inflation, home sales, new construction starts, employment, oil reserves, etc., when will this administration EVER tell US the TRUTH…………..never.
April 20th, 2006 09:24
Moved here in January 2005, and with $300,000 cash, all we saw was crap close to Washington DC. Rentals were and still are half of a conventional mortgage. Have been investing in oil stocks.
Will buy next year. Thanks for all your advice & insight.
Joke in Northern Virginia: What’s the difference between a realtor and car salesperson? The car salesperson knows when they are lying.
April 20th, 2006 09:57
SCMG -
Great post as usual. Glad you’re back and doing well.
April 20th, 2006 10:00
Thanks for the latest post. Good to hear that your new career is going well. SgtRock has it right. Wait until next year to buy.
A buddy was telling me about his son (early 20’s) that works in a major bank in NYC. His son was very excited because the bank felt that they were going to be making a killing off the readjustments. I’m thinking that these loans are so bad that it will be more like a giant game of hot potato. Will Fannie Mae be left burnt?
Welcome back.
OsoDelMar
April 20th, 2006 10:17
Regarding post 13, may be it is a good idea to buy stocks of some big lenders. Looks like that they may be racking lots of money after interest adjustments.
BUT, may be not, if they foreclose and real estate prices come down thne the banks are fucked.
April 20th, 2006 10:26
If my understanding is right many of these banks have already booked the deferred interest on option arms and neg amoritization loans as earnings. Resets may help their cash flow but they’ve already booked the earnings. If there are major foreclosures they may have to restate earnings. Bottom line if they already booked earnings there is no upside only a downside.
April 20th, 2006 11:28
Pawleeeze, post more often. Your stuff is great! Great to have you back.
April 20th, 2006 12:10
There is going to be an old acronym that will once again be very popular in the near future: REO (Real Estate Owned)
I had to write a program for a S&L I worked for in the early nineties to track all the foreclosures that went back to the bank.
It was ugly!
April 20th, 2006 15:23
Love your site. I was driven here my the Money Mag blurb and come back everyday for the posts and the comments wheich are very good. I had been feeling irresponsible because I was 30 and wasn’t a homeowner. I have learned a great deal from your site.
This reminds me of the late nineties when I was in school and couldn’t get in on the dot com madness.
There is nothing new under the sun I guess.
April 20th, 2006 17:43
SoCalMtgGuy: I really miss your smart posts from inside the mortgage machine. I’m glad for you that you got off before the paniced rush to the exits but there is still some love of drama in me that wishes that we all still had an intelligent insider’s view of the coming panic. Of course that’s not possible because the smart ones like you have left.
Regan: Of course nobody in the government can say anything about the upcomming crisis. Armando Falcoln stands and an operative lesson to those who might talk about the POSSIBILITY that the crazy-mortgage house of cards might collapse. He had to resign mere HOURS after releasing a report about “Systemec Risk” brought about by the GSEs.
April 20th, 2006 18:09
Really glad to hear that Plan B is working out so well for you!
Please continue to keep us posted on how things are going with your new line of work!
April 20th, 2006 18:45
I will keep posting here…don’t worry. Just because I’m not ‘in ‘ the industry every day like I was…doesn’t mean I don’t have friends and others that are feeding me info and updates.
There are NO barriers to entry to the mortgage business…and I am very interested in the industry and what happens…I just don’t want to be a part of it any longer.
Would you rather watch a building be imploded from a distance, or would you rather be inside the building???
As a whole, it was an eye-opening experience. The scary thing is the financial stupidity that has taken place on so many levels. People will look back on 500k condos that are renting for 1500 and wonder ‘what was I thinking?’.
I’m happy with my new job, saving money, and staying informed. Life is good.
Thanks for all the comments and support…and stay tuned. I will have more info coming.
SoCalMtgGuy
April 20th, 2006 21:24
SoCal, the part about the former loan officer selling cell phones is classic!! Glad to see you back!
as for the SD inventory, it officially stands at 19,069, we are 181 homes away from breaking the all time record of 19,250.
22,174 will be the target inventory record if we factor into population increase from 1995 to 2006. We’re about 3000 homes away.
April 21st, 2006 14:41
You’re right about the air thinning for the loan officers used to pulling in 30k a month…this business has no barriers of entry, and I’ve seen plenty of 20 year olds close 8 loans beginning on their 2nd month on financially-challenged subprime customers…and blow their commission checks on Escalades, strip clubs, Cristal, Vegas, Southbeach, etc…maybe the party’s over…
April 21st, 2006 14:43
In regards to the 16 year-old with the new Porsche 911…what happens when u hand him a 6-pack along with it?
April 21st, 2006 14:45
SoCalMtgGuy: I might be interested in seeing pictures or reading an account of what it’s like inside an imploding building, but not enough to actually suggest that anyone get in there. Since I actually own/owe a house house outside DC I think I’m already as close as want to be thank you very much. Since I bought in ‘99 and owe 19k less than I bought it for, and work for the guvment, I THINK I’m in thesafe zone.
ocrenter, I predict that this one will be part of that inventory for a while: http://orangecounty.craigslist.org/rfs/152686068.html
linked from http://overvalued.blogspot.com/
April 21st, 2006 16:33
Los Angeles market here. Inventories up (slightly), Sales down 10% YOY, however, prices are still going up. Is this some kind of magic trick? Defy the laws of supply & demand?
Doesn’t make a diffrence, I agree with most everything you say. My neighbor just timed the R.E. market for a “cross jump” flawlessly. Bought his 1900s.f. L.A. house 11 years ago for $200K, relocated to Las Vegas, Bought a 4400 s.f./1 acre house that was “listed” for $825K, negotiated down to $675K (your prediction is coming true there). Sold his L.A. home for $875K… after everything settled, new bigger house, no house note.
April 22nd, 2006 21:21
socal - i got just one number for you….
43,502
youknowwhati’mtalkingaboutbro
April 23rd, 2006 13:24
Good to see things are working out on the new gig! This is a TOTAL repeat of San Diego in 91/92. I was living in San Marcos at the time and watched in amazement as the Condos in place like UTC took an insane header, straight down into oblivion and dragged the owners down in the wake (actually more like a whirlpool of misery).
You are smart to head into another direction as we all know what will happen to all the shiny RE folks and the support industry personel (or at least those that don’t save for a rainy day).
Hmmmm….next big job growth industry…kicking people out of their foreclosed houses.
Inventory here in Vegas is skyrocketting, the 1 to 2 yr old neighbourhoods are peppered with for sale signs, KB crap houses, 20 lots to an acre junk, McMansions, Spec houses, empty lots, it’s all for sale and on the verge of panic (I’ld say mid July / Beginning August the blood bath will begin here, as hope vaporizes in a cloud of reality).
April 23rd, 2006 15:18
I totally agree with you guys. I am also a loan officer in the LA area. The problem is when I talk about this stuff at work,I feel like I am being treated like an outcast. Oh well tuff sh%$*. I do have to say that interest only arms and neg-ams comprise about 90% of our pipeline. That is crazy!! We will see how it plays out, although I think everyone knows but they are in a total state of denial. I dont mean the river.
April 23rd, 2006 15:25
And don’t let me get started on the stated income loans. So the “manager” at the AM/PM minimarket makes $6000 a month. Right. Now he’s approved for a PITI mortgage payment of $3000 per month. But wait, he really only makes $3000 per month. Oh oh. And his $0 down interest only loans are going to begin to adjust in 2 years. Oh yeah, he’s got a 2 year pre-payment penalty. Oh oh.
April 23rd, 2006 23:00
The car analogy is pretty amusing as well, Friday on my way to work there was an ad on the radio for a neg-Am loan for a new car from some dealership. Does anyone else see the problem here as well?
Wiseguy, it’s refreshing when someone in the RE biz has honest words. It gives us all hope!
April 24th, 2006 04:42
Welcome Back
1) I went to a Vegas conference and was stunned by the a) Complacency and biz models centered on sub-prime performing as they did over the last 24 months b) the sheer amount of those mortgage brokers below 25 that were blowing 5-10 grand on the trip (before gambling losses). Cannot and will not end well.
2) Interested on the Accredited blow-out: had always admired their comp structure and alignment of interest, which I thought manifested itself in the stock price and cost of loan origination. Have I been wrong?
April 25th, 2006 05:09
Wiseguy: And somebody will buy that loan? How can you possibly giftwrap a turd like that? I mean, the odds have to be >80% that the guys going to default within 5 years. If he’s paying naught but interest there won’t be ANY equity frosting on the REO turdcake that the lender will end up eating. Whatever they’ve earned in interest won’t even BEGIN to make them break even.
April 25th, 2006 09:50
Jim A. : and the investors will do these loans with people who have a FICO score as low as 580!! And yes, people have been gobbling these things right up. It wasn’t too risky when values were shooting up, they just refi’d out of them, but now the rates are going up and the payments are higher, so they are a little harder to qualify. Plus the values just aren’t moving up as fast. Most people will probably make the interest only payment so if the values stop increasing by the time you have to refi…….
April 25th, 2006 22:58
SoCal.
I visit your site time to time to see what’s new. I dig the “GAME OVER” t-shirt and the article.
Anyway, I’m a big fan of your insight and humor. You’re spot on about this bubble and it is amazing to see that the blinders and the denials that is still out there. I applaud what you are doing and hope that through your work, many people out there will finally GET IT.
I’M GLAD to SEE that you are back although not as frequently as before. Still glad!
Regards!
Rent
April 26th, 2006 05:51
Wiseguy: I’m not surprised that consumers often don’t read the fine print. I am surprised when investment managers are unable to see any number other than the interest rate. Where do we get all these bagholders? P.T. Barnum would be proud. Boy I’m glad I moved all of my 401(k) out of the bond market.
April 26th, 2006 18:29
Oh yeah FYI: one of our investors is rolling out the 50 year loan in early May!! We also have a 0 down negative amortization pay option arm. How’s that for loan options.
April 29th, 2006 06:55
OT nb Rent_boy: Do you realize what this term means on the other side of the Atlantic? (or Pacific)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_boy
April 29th, 2006 10:58
Better change your name to lease_boy!! That’s hilarious. Jim you obviously have way too much time on your hands. Seriously though, rates blipped up a little this week. I was actually quoting 6.5% on a 30 year fixed. They did improve slightly about .125% on Friday though. I have heard Realtors complaining alot that listings are sitting on the market a looong time now. Since alot of my leads are $0 down buyers, with the higher rates the payments are gettting beyond ridiculous to impossible. I can sense the buyer confidence is down versus the mania of last year. There are still people taking the plunge but there is definately a change. The second half of this year is going to be very interesting. We already have alot of people whose 2 year ARMs are coming due and they need to refi but are amazed that the rates are not at 5.5% anymore. They are stuck with higher payment no matter what. Check out the percentage of new defaults now.
April 29th, 2006 11:38
Lots of people will be hurting soon. There are two NPTP (No Pot To Piss in) guys in my office and they bought overpriced houses in Temecula, CA last year.
No down payment, 1.25% interest optional ARM. I tried to explain to them with mortgage calculator as to how much every month is being added to their principal, and tried to show them huge increase in monthly payment after two years, but they were not listening to me. I expect them to face foreclosure in near future. These people are barley making it now, far worse when their monthly payment increases by additional $800 a month.
GOODBYE YOU IGNORANT PEOPLE.
REALITY IS TOUGH.
April 30th, 2006 12:34
Hi. Help. Found you in the Money Mag. Dad left it on the coffee table during a family trip to Hawaii. I’m new to Nor. Cal., new to your blog and can’t decide who and what to believe. Real estate agents are desperate for our business and we don’t feel we can trust them. We are afraid to let go of the first home we bought in SLC less than a year ago. It is appreciating, but not renting. Now we find ourselves renting in Sacramento, hesitating to buy with all the bubble warnings, keeping the SLC prop as an investment. You seem to know what’s up.
May 2nd, 2006 20:44
Yo Socal:
Did you hear about the 3800 layoffs at Ameriquest today?
Any thoughts on the mortgage market?
May 5th, 2006 01:23
In a few months that will be 3800 homes added to the market… here it goes…
May 5th, 2006 08:05
Here is the iceberg (not just the tip):
“Speculative buyers are no longer fueling demand; instead they’re putting the homes they’ve recently acquired back on the market or are canceling contracts in mid-construction,” Chief Executive Robert Toll said. Much of the excess homes for sale are being aggressively discounted, he added.
How does the bagholder feel? You know, the fool who bought a McMansion on spec and now has the builder selling at a huge discount to his price - in the same development. Ouch!
May 5th, 2006 12:00
SoCalMtgGuy:
Do you find validity to this?
You know, it seems that a large number of these mortgage chop shops seem to be associated with ex-jocks. Of the 4 mbs I know , 3 were college athletes. Is there a link? I am friends with one of these guys, but it gets pretty annoying to talk about any RE issues. Sometimes I think the bubble was exacerbated by the “feedback loops” of so many people going into the RE/MB industries. These giys sit around the office all day talking about property they are considering, all their jock buddies tell them “Oh, go for it man! That developement is gonna SKY rocket!” Mutual reinforcement-it is strange what you can be led to believe when your peer group is all on the same wavelength, more and more absurd ideas become the norm. Extreme examples of this are cults or extremist political/terrorist orgs. This might sound like a long shot comparison, but I think the dynamic is similar. Someone posted that 40% of new jobs created are related to RE-so more and more people are exposed to these types of environments…..
May 8th, 2006 08:02
SoCal,
I think an excellent post would be to do some research on the characters on “Real Housewives of Orange County” on Bravo. This show is filled with at least one person that is living beyond his means - Slade. And to top it all off, he works for a title company! He has to be borderline bankrupt given his lifestyle, but I would love it if you could find out about all of the characters.
May 9th, 2006 09:35
SoCal,
I agree with you that Slade is living the lifestyle he can afford NOW, but with a real estate slowdown, it makes me wonder if he can make his mortgage payments, etc.
May 9th, 2006 12:30
That SLADE character is just that..a character. He’s typical of the RE industry bling lifestyle. All show and no substance. I personally know the Latino and Asian versions of Slade. They both claim to own some kind of RE related company but the wives confide with my wife and they say they ar not doing as good as it looks like since the slowdown. Go check out SLades my space.com pag where he saus hes also an aspiring actor. LOL!!!
May 9th, 2006 15:34
Don’t get me started on that clown SLADE. He seems to be typical of the RE “geniuses” I have come to despise.
May 11th, 2006 09:35
You know when you come back from Vegas it just doesn’t matter how much your were up, just how much you come home with. If you keep letting it ride, you’re guaranteed to come home a looser.
May 15th, 2006 19:47
Yo Socal:
Got any updates??
The housing market news is getting better and better (for us bears) every day.
Have you any pearls of wisdom for your faithful fans??
May 16th, 2006 00:27
I came across a nice presentation by Christopher Thornburg, a senior economist of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. I think he wraps the current state of matters in California quite nicely. It’s a rather long (59 min.) presentation, but well worth your time. I really urge everyone to watch this:
Presentation
May 16th, 2006 17:25
Thanks for the link, this guy is great. Very educational and interesting presentation.
May 18th, 2006 21:22
I’ll have a new post up in the next few days.
I have been very busy…and those of you that have e-mailed me and know what I am doing, understand what I mean.
Just sit back, be patient, and watch this unfold. It is NOT going to happen overnight.
Have a good weekend!
SoCalMtgGuy
May 23rd, 2006 18:17
OK, where’s the post…..??????
May 24th, 2006 18:09
Ameriquest Shuts Down!
WaMu Shit cans a ton!
Harmony Mtg GONE!
Where are you SoCal! You were one of the loan voices in the wilderness on Ben’s blog!
November 16th, 2006 08:22
Just Register
Just Register
January 5th, 2007 10:37
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July 8th, 2008 02:09
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