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As long as Congress keeps the ATM tax as is, more and more people will not benefit from interest deductions on homes — it’s almost as if they want to eliminate all deductions and put us all at a 28% tax rate. With inflation this will happen in 10-15 years. (Therefore, no political capital has been expended to eliminate all housing and state income tax deductions - blue states will be hurt the most, higher taxes and higher cost of housing– to bad)

Buy your house when you can pay it off before you retire. Forget the tax savings.

In your xls have you considered that tax savings on mortgage interest and property tax requires itemization of deduction and so diff between renting and owning should only account for the tax break on the additional amount over standard deduction. Renter will anyway get the break on standard deduction.

Exactly right! But interesting to note that on a practical level a 15% loss does wipe out 30% real estate gain:

The $100 goes to $130, then down to $110.5. Now to sell it, roughly 10% cost to sell brings it to about $100.

EASILY. If prices remained stagnant for while inflation chugged along at a relatively modest 3% for 12 years, real prices would have declined by 30%. However, if nominal prices declined by 10%, real losses of 30% would occur after only 8 years. And if nominal prices decline 20% (very likely in many areas), it only takes 4 years of low 3% inflation for real losses of 30% to mount.

And the most obvious, a nominal drop of 30% in prices immediately equals a 30% real decline, unless we are in a general state of deflation.

I keep screwing that gain/loss up.

IN any case, I could see a REAL loss of 30% easily happening (through some combination of drop and flat for N years so inflation eats things away)